843
FXUS65 KGJT 142314
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
414 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- WHILE MOST AREAS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND MORE
MODERATE SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE IS PASSING OVER HEAD WITH A CONTINUED WEAK
DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
LIMITING MIXING AND KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY ARE ENOUGH TO REDUCE DIURNAL
HEATING, BUT WITH THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ONLY THE SNOW COVER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS COOLING TO NEAR TO FIVE OR TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW SOMEWHAT HEAVIER CIRRUS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT THAT WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH ON EAST
TOMORROW BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
SUNSHINE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREA AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
DESPITE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEST, A SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST
WILL SHIFT FLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY'S MOISTURE PUSH LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF MANY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, PWATS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECASTED
TO ONLY BE AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS IT
ADVECTS THROUGH THE CWA. SO, THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED.
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STRONGER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS DURING THIS SECOND MOISTURE PUSH COULD
EXCEED 175% OF NORMAL. IN ADDITION, AN INCREASE IN DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW COULD PROVIDE A BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. SO,
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, SOMETIMES
AT HEAVIER RATES, AS MOISTURE FROM A POTENTIALLY STRONGER
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND INCREASED SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA.
THE ECMWF ENS AND GFS ENS SEEM TO AGREE WITH EACH OTHER PRETTY WELL
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MOISTURE, EVEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MEMBERS OF EACH ENSEMBLE REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
RATIOS. SO, UNSETTLED MOUNTAIN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM, PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TRANSLATE THROUGH AND AN OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME.
THERE IS STILL SOME SMALL PROBABILITY OF TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KGUC AS GROUND FOG DRIFTS OVER THE AIRFIELD.
CONFIDENCE LOW OF LASTING IMPACTS THERE. OTHERWISE VFR WINS THE
DAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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