516
FXUS65 KGJT 151729
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IS CONFINED TO THE SPINE OF THE
PARK RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WARM
DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. A SWATH OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING
WITH SUNNIER SKIES WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID- DECEMBER. TOMORROW WE START TO TRANSITION INTO A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL SET US UP FOR SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT WON'T KNOCK US
OUT OF OUR WARM AND DRY WAYS QUITE YET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS MOISTURE, WHICH DRAWS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLICATION
WITH THE FORECAST. BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
AND JET/DYNAMIC FORCING, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, LEADING TO HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS, WHICH LIMITS POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE FIRST AR MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACNW TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL
WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS MAY KEEP LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LIGHT. THE NEXT AR MOVES INTO THE PACNW THURSDAY AND
PROGRESSES INLAND NORTH OF OUR REGION, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARRYING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN, WE ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS APPEAR FAVORED FOR BETTER
SNOWFALL AMONG THE HIGHER PEAKS BUT CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND
EXTENT IS LOW AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND SNOW LEVELS HIGH.
OVERALL, WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF I-70,
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AND AMOUNTS IS LOW DUE TO MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES, AS WELL AS THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND EXTENT OF THE FORCING AS THE BEST FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLICATES THE
FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND LOWER
SNOW RATIOS WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXTEND. WILL NEED MORE CLARITY ON MODEL DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER
BEFORE DISCUSSING AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WITH ANY GREAT DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...DB
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