161
FXUS65 KGJT 161056
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL JET PASSES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE LITTLE DETAILS THAT COULD PACK
A BIG PUNCH THAT REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE VARIABLES COULD
BE OVERRIDDEN BY CONVECTIVE CELLS OR CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT
ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR WARMER WINTER SYSTEMS TO PRODUCE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. THE CAMS ARE SHOWCASING THIS POTENTIAL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANTLY ON THE
FRONT RANGE, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
BURSTS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1"/HR. STRONG WINDS
WILL FURTHER LOWER VISIBILITY DURING PERIODS OF ACTIVE SNOWFALL
AS WELL. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS,
TRAVELERS MAY ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES AND ROAD
CONDITIONS. THIS IS A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
LIGHT, OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY KEEPING THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. AR MOISTURE STAYS MOSTLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DOES THE JET AND ANY UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS, BUT DOES BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NOT A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (<20%) FOR MINOR IMPACTS ON RABBIT EARS PASS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OF INTEREST, THE AR PUSHES SOUTH TO THE LA BASIN ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH, BUT WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO STAY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING EVERY FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 919 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE TAF FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OR LESS OF GROUND FOG IMPACTING THE KGUC
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page