492
FXUS65 KGJT 170457
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND INITIALIZED WELL
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF SOCAL AND BAJA COAST,
A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING INTO TEXAS AND A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A JET CORE OF 170+ KTS IS
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS, AND ACTIVITY WILL END ABRUPTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW
LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT TO ABOUT 8,000 FT LEADING
TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SNOW ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
THE FRONT. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID, HERE IS YOUR SHORT TERM
FORECAST:
WEATHER IS QUIET AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT THIS SYSTEM COMING
IN TOMORROW WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL START PICK UP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PEAKING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, BUT A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY LATE EVENING. LOOK FOR SNOW SQUALLS WITH THIS FRONT
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY BLOWING SNOW. ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES ABOVE 9,000 FT FOR 3-7
INCHES SNOW AND WINDS GUSTING TO 75 MPH CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO ZERO VISIBILITY IN A SNOW SQUALL. THIS
ADVISORY RUNS FROM 11:00 AM TO 11:00 PM MOSTLY AFFECTING HWY-40 OVER
RABBIT EARS PASS, BUT THE OTHER MOUNTAIN ROADS MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW ANS GUSTING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE PASSES. SHOWERS
WILL END QUICKLY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR A
DAY THURSDAY, AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CLINGS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOLER IS ALL RELATIVE HERE, GIVEN THE EXCESSIVELY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL TREND 10
DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY AND RATCHET UP FROM THERE FRIDAY.
OROGRAPHIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION. BROAD ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY, AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL TO WARM AND HIGHS CLIMB IN
EXCESS OF 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE IT'S GOING ANYWHERE ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. LIGHT,
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND BENEATH THE ZONAL FLOW, BUT WARM TEMPERATURES KEEP SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8000 FEET AND HIGHER. A SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BUMP HIGHS UP ANOTHER NOTCH. IN
FACT, THE RECORD HIGH HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION NEXT MONDAY IS ONLY 54
DEGREES, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. THIS RECORD COULD
EASILY COME DOWN. STILL SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE, BUT
THE STUBBORN DRY AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE WEST DOESN'T LOOK READY
TO YIELD TO SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS YET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS OF NOW, BUT A
SHIFT IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. AS EARLY AS
SUNRISE, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. ILS BREAKPOINTS COULD BE MET AT KASE, KEGE, KRIL, AND
KHDN AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER NOTABLE CONCERN TOMORROW
WILL BE STRONG GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-45 KNOTS NEAR HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINALS AND REGION-WIDE LLWS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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