071
FXUS65 KGJT 180443
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
943 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
A POTENT JET STREAK IS NOSING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT
EXIT FORCING HAS PRODUCED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ACROSS THE WASATCH. THIS
MORNING'S GRAND JUNCTION SOUNDING SHOWS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT STACKED THROUGH THE COLUMN. A FEW STRONG GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
FILTERED TO THE SURFACE IN CRAIG AND MEEKER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS PRETTY ANEMIC UPSTREAM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL USHER IN A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST COLORADO AND ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE JET. WIND ADVISORIES
WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE ADVISORY
WILL SEE PERIODIC SHELTERING FROM WIND, OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS 40
TO 60 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING WERE THE TIPPING POINT FOR MY
DECISION. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GLENWOOD SPRINGS TO VAIL PASS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS ATOP THE PASS WILL EXCEED THE 60 MPH
MARK AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE AMENABLE TO
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING TOO, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY COOL THE COLUMN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE WIND BLOWN
SNOW ON THE PASSES WILL DROP VISIBILITY QUICKLY. A FEW BANDED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT
THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE SYSTEM WORKS
EAST ACROSS THE DIVIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOO, BUT REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND THE WASHED
OUT FRONT WILL TONE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME AROUND THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY
GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW KEEPING
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS SETTING UP A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER (AR) IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AS THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN, KEEPING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO
PUSH THE MOIST PLUME TO THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE
TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO WINTER HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ON THE PARK AND GORE RANGES SATURDAY. STAY TUNED ON
THIS FOR MORE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE AR NOW FEEDING THROUGH
THE LA BASIN, WE WILL START TO SEE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT BY MID WEEK, THE
LOW OFF SOCAL/BAJA WILL TAP INTO SOME DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BY
MID WEEK THAT COULD BRING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
THE REGION BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY, BUT IT WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR SOME EXCITING HOLIDAY
TRAVEL WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. YOU'LL WANT TO
STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE FOR SURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 939 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
THOUGH UNLIKELY, LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR KASE AND KEGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT THOUGH,
CIGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. STRONG GUSTS TO 30-50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT FOR MOST HIGH ELEVATION
TERMINALS, WITH THESE GUSTS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING AT KASE, KEGE, KGUC, AND KHDN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ002-005-008-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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