451
FXUS65 KGJT 041041
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN WILL LIFT AROUND MID DAY
TODAY. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN A FEW LOW LYING
AREAS.
- EXCEPTIONALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY.
- RAIN/SNOW MIXES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FEET, WITH
3-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 9000 FEET.
- A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AND MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WAVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST
THIS MORNING. BANDED CLOUD GROUPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THIS MORNING. A FEW PULSES OF
GUSTY WINDS HAVE KEPT THINGS MIXED UP TOO. THE UINTA BASIN REMAINS
BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG THOUGH. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THERE INTO MID DAY BEFORE IT MIXES
OUT. THE PROGRESSIVE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH SOME
OROGRAPHIC FLURRIES FOR THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE, GIVEN THE EXCESS OF WARM
AIR LOCKED IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TODAY TOO, WITH HIGHS
IN EXCESS OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
TOO. A FEW LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME SUN BREAK THROUGH EARLY, BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE RAMP UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN.
THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
A JET MAX EJECTING FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
DRAPE ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOO. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, I THINK WE'RE GOING
TO BE DEALING WITH WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, STIFLING SNOW
PRODUCTION. MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD CHECK LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
MOUNTAIN PASSES EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOST MOUNTAIN GROUPS MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY REQUIRE 9000 FEET OR HIGHER
TO ESCAPE THE PERSISTENT WARM AIR MASS ON MONDAY. SHOULDER
ELEVATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES TO TEST OUR
EXPECTATIONS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGHER
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EXPECTATIONS TOO. FOR NOW,
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
GROUPS, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ABOVE TREELINE AND UP IN THE
PARK RANGE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS TRAPPED AGAINST THE NORTHERN DIVIDE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. |
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL UNDER WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEP TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
WEST COAST, WITH ENERGY AT THE BASE CUTTING OFF TO FORM A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOCAL COAST TUESDAY MORNING. OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO, LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS, TRACKING IT ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER. WITH THIS
TRACK WE WON'T SEE MUCH, IF ANY, DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW.
HOWEVER, IT DOES HELP TO START PULLING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL DROP OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH IT,
ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WITH THIS TROUGH, WITH SOME MEMBERS LEANING TOWARDS
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS, WHILE OTHERS KEEP ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
AROUND. ADMITTEDLY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SYSTEMS SUCH AS THESE DO TEND
TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, AS AR MOISTURE GETS WRUNG OUT OVER SEVERAL
MOUNTAIN BARRIERS BEFORE REACHING OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. ALL THE
SAME, MODELS DO BREAK OUT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THERE IS AT LEAST MODERATE (>50%) CONFIDENCE
THAT WE'LL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE DROPS IN,
BRINGING A POTENT COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. EVEN
LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SNOW OUT OF
THIS SYSTEM ONCE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY, AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE,
BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY STANDS, ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET ARE LOOKING AT
A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES, DECREASING TO A TRACE TO AN INCH FOR THE
DESERT VALLEY FLOORS. THESE TOTALS ARE VERY LIKELY TO ADJUST IN THE
COMING DAYS, HOWEVER, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SPACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN
UTAH BASINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH KVEL AND KCNY THE
WORSE OF THE BUNCH WITH SOLID LIFR IN PLACE. KCNY COULD IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE KVEL NOT MOVING INTO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF FOG IMPACT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. SO FAR WEBCAMS ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS LAST
EVENING SO CONFIDENCE SHAKY AND LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECAST ATTM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ024.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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