354
FXUS65 KGJT 042342
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH PEAK IMPACTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
COMBINE FOR SLIPPERY TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
- 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY
ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PARK
RANGE.
- A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AND MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO 9,000 FEET AND ABOVE WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE BETWEEN 7,000-9,000 FEET. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-70 TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE EXPECTED 4-8"
OVER THE PARK RANGE AND 3-6" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FALLING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS AND PARK RANGE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST WIND AND SNOW PROBABILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, SLIPPERY STRETCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
MOST MOUNTAIN PASSES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MINOR MOUNTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE LOWER VALLEYS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, BUT STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASED
MIXING WILL CHIP AWAY AT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WITH EACH PASSING DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOME BAD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AND THAT BEING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY FROM FORECAST AMOUNTS 24 HOURS
AGO. SO MUCH FOR THAT CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM AND TIMING HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT, AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS DROPPED RESULTING IN LESS SNOWFALL. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES LOOK THE SAME WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
OPENING UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE US/MEXICO BORDER WHILE A LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL FIRE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. THIS MINOR
WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
COVERAGE INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDMORNING FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. THE
PARK RANGE IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WHILE THE FLAT
TOPS, GRAND MESA AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES. THIS ALL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT
CONSIDERING THE CHANGES THAT OCCURRED FROM JUST A FEW MODEL
RUNS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE INDICATING A REX
BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST KEEPING DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, HIGHS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES, DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, HIGH TEMPS WILL
DROP TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND PASSING WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
WILL THIS MOISTURE AND MIXING FROM THE SYSTEM KEEP DENSE FOG
FROM FORMING OR WILL PERSISTENCE WIN OUT. WENT WITH THE LATER
SCENARIO ATTM BUT WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS
CLOSELY FOR FOG OVER EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. OTHERWISE EXPECT FALLING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS THIS
MOSITURE MOVES IN...INITIALLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TERRAIN
OBSCURATION THEN ILS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MANY TAF SITES AS
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS BECOME MORE LIKELY. STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED LLWS AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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