511
FXUS65 KGJT 051801
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN TODAY,
ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
SLIPPERY, SNOWPACKED ROADS.
- 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY
ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PARK
RANGE.
- A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AND MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT IS BRINGING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. WITH THIS JET ENERGY IN PLACE, WE HAVE SEEN
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SURFACE LEVELS REMAIN ON
THE DRIER SIDE, AND SO IT'S TAKEN SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ONCE
SATURATED, VALLEY RAIN IS EXPECTED BELOW 7000 FEET, MOUNTAIN SNOW
ABOVE 9000 FEET, AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN BETWEEN. THANKS TO THE WARM
AIRMASS, BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. AN INTERESTING TWIST FOR THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, ARE
INVERTED VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS, THE GUNNISON
VALLEY, AND EVEN THE GRAND VALLEY, WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS
A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WINDS ALSO BECOME
ELEVATED AS PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE, MIXING DOWN THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ALREADY WE'VE SEEN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WHERE
RAIN HAS REACHED THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLICK AND SNOWPACKED ROADS, THIS WILL
LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE 3-6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PARK AND ELKHEAD RANGES, WHERE 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, AND WINDS GUSTING 40-50 WILL LEAD TO DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING SOME INCREASED LIFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-70. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING BRIEF INTENSE RAIN OR
SNOWFALL. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BUILD IN BEHIND THE WAVE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PARK RANGE, WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHICS WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT TO ACCUMULATE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. DESPITE HAVING A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH, TEMPERATURES DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY, WITH HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW REMAINING IN THE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. TOMORROW
WILL BE QUIETER THOUGH, AS TRANSIENT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND
SKIES NORTH OF I-70 CLEAR OUT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET REMAINS IN
PLACE ALOFT, AND WHERE CLEAR SKIES PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING, SOME OF
THESE STRONGER, GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOUTH OF I-70,
WINDS WILL BE CALMER AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH KEEP MIXING LIMITED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF ANOMALOUS WARM DAYS THROUGH
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A COL
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SUN TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK CUTOFF
LOW WORKING ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON KEEPS ANY
MEANINGFUL FORCING OR MOISTURE OUT OF REACH. A FEW SHORTWAVE,
OROGRAPHIC RIPPLES PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ON THE FLAT TOPS AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS ELEVATED THOUGH. HOW MUCH WE COOL AND HOW QUICKLY WILL ONCE
AGAIN CHALLENGE FORECASTERS EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WARM AIR, I WOULDN'T BET ON A QUICK TURNOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE
COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STEADY SNOW ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN GROUPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN THURSDAY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD
PICK UP AFTER DAYBREAK AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS THE GUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE BETWEEN
QUANTITIES, BUT A FEW MOUNTAIN GROUPS COULD REQUIRE HEADLINES
THURSDAY. THE BIG ASSUMPTION HERE WILL BE COOLING THE COLUMN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STEADY SNOW, RATHER THAN RAIN SNOW MIX. MOUNTAIN
PASSES LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, SO A FEW TRAVEL
HEADACHES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SNOWFALL GETS A HAND LATER THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL SNOW, GIVEN FORCING AND COLD AIR. EVENING COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES, GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS. COLD, DRY AIR WILL SCOUR OUT MOISTURE LATE
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW, BUT LIGHT
FLURRIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
ADJUST DOWN 10-15 DEGREES TOO...NEAR NORMAL. COOLER, DRIER,
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE NIL THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING UP ABOVE NORMAL A FEW DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, CAUSING LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
MAY ALLOW FOR ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET AT MANY SITES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT LOW
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW MAY PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MOVE OVER THE REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page