378
FXUS65 KGJT 052223
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
IT'S BEEN A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY AS A 120KT JET STREAK HAS MOVED
OVERHEAD PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE WHILE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALSO INCREASED CONSIDERABLY. YOU COULD GO
AS FAR AS CALLING THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK COOL FRONT. EITHER WAY,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS REALIZED AND TAPPED INTO, TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO FORM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED
ALONG WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THANKS TO BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH HAS ALLOWED MOST SHOWERS TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS
AND SNOW ABOVE 8K TO 9K FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUES AND LOCAL SNOTELS ARE SHOWING
AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES HAVING FALLEN THERE SO THINGS REMAIN ON
TRACK. CAMS ARE SHOWING THAT A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CRAIG SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN TO MEEKER AND
DOUGLAS PASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH AND ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THAT BEING SAID, PRECIP WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MIGHT SEE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE LOW LYING
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE MIXING THAT OCCURRED TODAY, NOT
SURE HOW MUCH WILL FORM. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
TUESDAY WILL BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, MORE OVER
AND AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW TODAY, MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL DEFINE MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE OUR PATTERN CHANGE AS
IT PROPAGATES INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THIS TROUGH WILL STILL BE
WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF
IT LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING AS A MODERATE PLUME OF MOISTURE
ADVECTS THROUGH THE REGION. SO, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RATES LOOK TO INCREASE, AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, AS INCREASED FORCING MOVES IN
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, A JET STREAK LOOKS TO SET
UP TO OUR SOUTH, PLACING MUCH OF OUR CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION,
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE EVEN MORE LIFT. AS SUCH, THE MAIN TIMING OF
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS CLEAR THAT A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON SOME OF THE DETAILS,
INCLUDING SNOW LEVELS AND TOTALS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MOVING IN
DURING THIS EVENT COMES FROM A MORE NORTHERN LATITUDE, MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF
ENS AND GFS ENS REGARDING SNOW TOTALS, WHICH CREATES UNCERTAINTY.
THE MOISTURE FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM RUN TO RUN, SO MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS WOULD ALSO HELP RAISE CONFIDENCE.
DRIER, COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
GENERALLY END PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO DRY, QUIET WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, CAUSING LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
MAY ALLOW FOR ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET AT MANY SITES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT LOW
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW MAY PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MOVE OVER THE REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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