626
FXUS65 KGJT 061801
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THINNING CLOUD COVER AND A FEW FLURRIES ON THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY RETURNS
COOLER WEATHER.
- MEASURABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY ACROSS ALL MAJOR MOUNTAIN GROUPS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG HAS LIFTED SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING UP
AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PARK RANGE WERE CANCELED, AS SNOW HAS TAPERED TO NEAR NOTHING.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ALL BUT DONE WITH A DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS MORNING. INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER WITH SOME HIGHER BASED
STUFF WILL STREAM THROUGH TODAY, BUT A LITTLE SUNSHINE WILL PEAK
THROUGH IN MANY LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM RECENT ACTIVITY WON'T GET SCOURED OUT EITHER, GIVEN THE LACK OF
A MAJOR AIRMASS SHIFT. PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG ARE GOING TO CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE VALLEYS AND RIVER BASINS THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHERE CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA BASIN, WITH
VISIBILITIES AROUND HAYDEN AND CRAIG LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20'S LIKELY MEAN A FEW BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES COULD BE SLICK FROM FREEZING FOG. OROGRAPHIC SNOW
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ORTHOGONAL TO THE TERRAIN THERE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE, WITH MOST FALLING WELL
ABOVE TREELINE.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME CHILLY LOWS IN THE COLD
MOUNTAIN BASINS ADJACENT TO NEW SNOW. SINGLE DIGITS IN GUNNISON ARE
LOOKING LIKELY AND MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IF ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER/FOG DOESN'T MATERIALIZE. FOG WILL, ONCE AGAIN, PRODUCE
SOME FROZEN RIME ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, ADDING TO MORNING
COMMUTE CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MOTORISTS SHOULD
STAY ABREAST OF LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOW
RETURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THOUGH, SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL DAYTIME TERRAIN WINDS. CLOUD
COVER RAMPS UP AGAIN THOUGH, SO MIXING LIKELY TAKES A HIT TOO,
FURTHER SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TAKING A BITE OUT OF HIGHS BEFORE
PEAK HEATING HITS. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THURSDAY'S COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
DEEP, COLD TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRANSITS TO OUR SOUTH, AND A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIFT FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE, ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING
NORTHEAST, WILL HELP START PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PLACED IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH, AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A JET TO OUR SOUTH, MAXIMIZING JET DRIVEN LIFT OVER
THE CWA. SOME FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL LEND A HAND AS WELL. WITH MULTIPLE SOURCES OF LIFT AND
PWATS OF 120-150% OF NORMAL PROJECTED, PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY
FILL IN. A SECOND IMPULSE DROPPING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REACH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY,
REINVIGORATING PRECIPITATION RATES AND PUSHING A POTENT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. ALL TOGETHER, THIS MARKS THE PERIOD OF MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL, FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERS IN, WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY UNDER
THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT, WITH GUIDANCE HONING IN ON A GENERAL
6-12 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER
DETAILS SUCH AS TIME OF THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, SNOW LEVELS, AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER RESOLUTION
DATA IN THE COMING DAYS COULD SEE THESE TOTALS ADJUST SUBSTANTIALLY.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS, THERE IS QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR WILL REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS. WE'VE SEEN VERY WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, AND THESE VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO COOL,
KEEPING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST
OF THE EVENT.
COOLER, UNSETTLED NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERS OVER THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BUILD A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD KEEP US HIGH AND DRY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY START OFF AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS TEMPERED BY CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY DROP SUBSTANTIALLY,
RUNNING NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE HANG ON TO THESE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARM UP KICKS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE REGION HAS BURNED OFF, LEAVING SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
AND THEY MAY THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE MORNING FOG BUT THIS FAR OUT,
HELD OFF ON PUTTING ANY IN TAFS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...GF
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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