250
FXUS65 KGJT 062155
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
255 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES PERSIST TOMORROW, BUT ON
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS MORNING'S CLOUD
COVER HAS CLEARED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70, WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVER BASINS. BELOW
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA COULD LEAD TO
FREEZING FOG. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN REMAIN LOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASES. TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, PERHAPS ONLY CHANGING BY A FEW DEGREES. SO,
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
PRECIP STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT, MORE POTENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIGHT SEE AN INCH OR THREE THANKS TO THE
SHORTWAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FAR AS THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT ARE CONCERNED, THEY START MOVING THROUGH AROUND NOON THURSDAY
AND BY THE EVENING HOURS, THE FRONT WILL HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE
CO/NM BORDER. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE THANKS
TO THE INCREASED LIFT. A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO CREATE MORE LIFT AND THUS,
HEAVIER PRECIP. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. WAS READY TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON
SOME ADVISORIES BUT SOME MINOR CHANGES CHANGED THAT THINKING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD OUR CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS BUT THIS SUPPORT HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENED SOME WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. ALSO, AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. EC AND GFS
METEOGRAMS, AND ENS METEOGRAMS HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE BOARD. FINALLY, FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OVERDONE FOR EVERY SYSTEM THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SO FAR THIS SEASON
SO FAR ALL THESE REASONS, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE ALSO ON BOARD SO,
HOPEFULLY, ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS. WE WILL
BE GETTING SNOW, THE QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE STILL REMAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT OR JUST BELOW
THOSE SAME AVERAGES. SUNDAY ONWARDS, TEMPS WILL START TO WARMUP DAY
BY DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE REGION HAS BURNED OFF, LEAVING SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
AND THEY MAY THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE MORNING FOG BUT THIS FAR OUT,
HELD OFF ON PUTTING ANY IN TAFS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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