027
FXUS65 KGJT 071155
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES PERSIST TOMORROW, BUT ON
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A CUTOFF
LOW OFF SOCAL/BAJA AND A SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SECOND TROUGH SYSTEM DESCENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY TRACKING EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA-
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING AN OPENWAVE
EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIMITING THE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES, RAIN-SNOW MIX TO THE LOW VALLEYS AND
FOUR CORNERS AREA, AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
REST OF THE REGION. THE SECOND TROUGH SYSTEM DESCENDS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS BASE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER, BUT INACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A DRY, COLD AIRMASS
TO THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY.
THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS SOME UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, MAY PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU, THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS, THE GRAND
MESA, THE FLAT TOPS AND THE PARK RANGE FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FACES OF THE TERRAIN. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS ABOVE
8000 FEET FOR FOUR TO 12 INCHES NEW SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
PRECIP STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT, MORE POTENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIGHT SEE AN INCH OR THREE THANKS TO THE
SHORTWAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FAR AS THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT ARE CONCERNED, THEY START MOVING THROUGH AROUND NOON THURSDAY
AND BY THE EVENING HOURS, THE FRONT WILL HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE
CO/NM BORDER. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE THANKS
TO THE INCREASED LIFT. A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO CREATE MORE LIFT AND THUS,
HEAVIER PRECIP. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. WAS READY TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON
SOME ADVISORIES BUT SOME MINOR CHANGES CHANGED THAT THINKING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD OUR CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS BUT THIS SUPPORT HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENED SOME WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. ALSO, AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. EC AND GFS
METEOGRAMS, AND ENS METEOGRAMS HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE BOARD. FINALLY, FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OVERDONE FOR EVERY SYSTEM THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SO FAR THIS SEASON
SO FAR ALL THESE REASONS, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE ALSO ON BOARD SO,
HOPEFULLY, ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS. WE WILL
BE GETTING SNOW, THE QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE STILL REMAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT OR JUST BELOW
THOSE SAME AVERAGES. SUNDAY ONWARDS, TEMPS WILL START TO WARMUP DAY
BY DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH
00Z. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KTEX, KDRO, AND KHDN AFTER 03Z, AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS AS THESE SHOWERS BEGIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-012-013-017.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB
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