161
FXUS65 KGJT 072202
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN CO AND THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS IN UT FOR GENERALLY
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FRIDAY AS HIGHS DROP TO MORE
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES BELOW.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH BEING
WORKED ON BY A SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME HEAVIER
PRECIP POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A SECOND, MORE POTENT, COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO MUCH OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY, A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS ADDED LIFT WILL ALLOW SOME
HEAVIER SNOWFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT'S
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY ALSO SEE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT AND ADDED THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SAN JUANS AND THE LA
SALS AND ABAJOS IN UTAH ABOVE 8500 FEET, FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE SO WHILE TRAVELLING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BE
AWARE THAT SURFACE VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE RAPIDLY UNDER
HEAVIER SNOW/SNOWSHOWERS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SEEN RECENTLY BUT THE REAL PUSH OF COLD
AIR WILL BE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE LEFT IN
ITS WAKE THOUGH AS H7 TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE.
SO COULD SEE SOME NORTHERLY OROGRAPHICS KEEP SNOW GOING ON THE
NORTHERN SLOPES AND INTO THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE IN THE NW SAN
JUANS A BIT LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT FOLLOWS IS A
DRIER PERIOD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OUT WEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, CAUSING ANY SYSTEMS OR MOISTURE TO
BE STEERED UP AND AROUND THE BLOCKING RIDGE. WE STILL MAINTAIN
A NORTHERLY FLOW SO THE PARK RANGE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME BUT OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND
AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS UNTIL 03Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AMONG HIGHER TERRAIN SITES WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF PREVAILING SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. ILS BREAKPOINTS LOOK TO
BE REACHED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
AND SNOW IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ028.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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