584
FXUS65 KGJT 081803
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN CO AND THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS IN UT FOR GENERALLY
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FRIDAY AS HIGHS DROP TO MORE
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES BELOW.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE H500 LOW
EAST OF SANTA FE NM MOVING TO THE EAST, AN H700 COLD FRONT JUST
PUSHING EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
INSTABILITY BEHIND IT, A DRY SLOT APPROACHING THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
OF THE REGION, AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE
WASATCH MOUNTAINS EXTENDING WEST TO THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEVADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO AS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING ON ROADS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM HWY-40 UP NORTH TO HWY-161 DOWN SOUTH FAVORING THE
WESTERN TO SOUTHERN FACE OF RISING TERRAIN WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS ARE
STRONGEST. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST BY NOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED MUCH COLDER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL PASS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SHOWERS, CLOUD COVER AND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS ENDING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ANOTHER TEN DEGREES FROM WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW, AND IT WILL LOOK WARMER, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS, AND WITH THE BREEZY
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WINDCHILL TEMPS WILL FEEL BITTERLY COLD
COMPARED TO WARM TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 5 AM TOMORROW. EXPECT WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH SLICK ROADS AND PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF
YOU NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST WILL
PUSH THE TROUGH ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVOLVE INTO A REX
BLOCK BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
CUT OFF ANY SOUTHERN MOISTURE SOURCE AND ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SETTING UP THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MIDWEEK THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN BUCKLES ALLOWING A DEEP EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH TO FORM. THIS CAN ONLY MEAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD LEAVING A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS
THAT FAR OUT HAVE THE FLAVOR OF THE PATTERN CORRECT BUT THE EURO IS
DIGGING A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE THE GFS IS DIGGING MORE THROUGH THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS ARE NOT OF MUCH HELP ATTM WITH THE FAVORED TWO SCENARIOS
JUST A REFLECTION OF THE SAME SCENARIO ABOVE. SO FORECAST CHALLENGES
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED AROUND THE DAILY TEMPERATURES FORECAST. COLD
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PUSHES TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A TROUGH BUILDING ALOFT LIKELY
TO RE-ENFORCE SURFACE INVERSIONS...SEVERAL VALLEY AND BASIN
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GOING BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS.
THE WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. IMPACTS, INCLUDING MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CHANCES OF TAF SITE IMPACTS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES, BUT A SECOND
WAVE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL,
LOWERED CEILINGS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY BEGINNING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT
SOME SITES, IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL MAY LINGER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ028.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
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