462
FXUS65 KGJT 091153
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
453 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE MANY OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
CORRIDORS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 550 CORRIDOR OF THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TODAY WITH BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
- WELL BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
GUNNISON...SLATE...EAST AND TAYLOR RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
DYNAMIC SITUATION OVERNIGHT WILL SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCTION
THANKS TO COLD ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHICS MAKING EFFICIENT USE OF
THE EXPANDING DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE WAS ALSO SOME IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTER CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 550 AND 160 SHOWED PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND WE GOT SOME BONUS INCHES OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LA PLATA COUNTY AS A RESULT WHICH IS NOW AFFECTING
ARCHULETA COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH WE ALREADY RECEIVED SNOW
REPORTS OVER A FOOT ALONG THE NORTHERN FACE OF THE SAN JUANS AND
WEBCAMS IN OURAY SUGGEST HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES WITH THE COLD
ADVECTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TRIGGERING A GORGE EVENT.
DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THIS ZONE AND EXTEND MOST OF
THE HEADLINES FARTHER INTO THE MORNING. THE DENDRITIC LAYER
LOOKS SLOWER TO DRY OUT AND WE ARE IN THE RIGHT SIDE UP SNOW
PRODUCTION NOW WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATES LIKELY PUSHING 20:1
WHICH HELPING INFLATE SNOW AMOUNTS. DO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES THE DIVIDE AND PUSHES THE SOUTHERN
CIRCULATION WELL ONTO THE PLAINS. HIGH MOUNTAIN FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
ENDING BY SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL IN
QUITE SOME TIME. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEAR SKIES
WE WILL BOTTOM OUT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MEANS OUR COLD POOLS
SHOULD REACT AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY AREAS. DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN AND
SURROUNDING COLD VALLEYS LEADING TO IT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE BASED WITH THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION SET UP ON THE HORIZON.
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORM AS WELL BUT
DROPPING DEW POINTS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS, BUT CONTINUE TO FLIP BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. ONE SCENARIO HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG IT EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH BRINGING REMNANTS OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) MOVING IN THROUGH WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH IVTS > 200 KG/M/S AND
PWATS > 200% NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SECOND
SCENARIO HAS THE HIGH BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING THE
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE TO THE EAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. GUIDANCE
IS INDECISIVE WITH POPS ONLY 20-40% ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE TUESDAY AND A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THESE SYSTEMS. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON HOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL TURN OUT BY SUNDAY AND THE SECOND,
LATE WEEK SYSTEM BY ABOUT TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH/RIDGE TO THE WEST INCREASE H500 HEIGHTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID JANUARY AND CONTINUE CLIMBING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AGAIN, THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED SHOULD THE WITH THE FIRST SCENARIO ABOVE WITH RIDGE/HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING FARTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
LINGERING PATCHY FOG AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, ENDING BY 19Z.
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS AT KHDN, KASE,KMTJ, KTEX AND KDRO IN FOG AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WINDS
BY 01Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ004-009-010-012-013-017-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ018.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ028.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
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