010
FXUS65 KGJT 091753
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE MANY OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
CORRIDORS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 550 CORRIDOR OF THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TODAY WITH BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
- WELL BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
GUNNISON...SLATE...EAST AND TAYLOR RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
DYNAMIC SITUATION OVERNIGHT WILL SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW
PRODUCTION THANKS TO COLD ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHICS MAKING
EFFICIENT USE OF THE EXPANDING DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE WAS ALSO
SOME IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTER CIRCULATION
MOVING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS
ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 550 AND 160 SHOWED PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND WE GOT SOME BONUS INCHES
OVER FAR SOUTHERN LA PLATA COUNTY AS A RESULT WHICH IS NOW
AFFECTING ARCHULETA COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH WE ALREADY RECEIVED
SNOW REPORTS OVER A FOOT ALONG THE NORTHERN FACE OF THE SAN
JUANS AND WEBCAMS IN OURAY SUGGEST HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES WITH THE
COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TRIGGERING A GORGE EVENT.
DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THIS ZONE AND EXTEND MOST OF
THE HEADLINES FARTHER INTO THE MORNING. THE DENDRITIC LAYER
LOOKS SLOWER TO DRY OUT AND WE ARE IN THE RIGHT SIDE UP SNOW
PRODUCTION NOW WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATES LIKELY PUSHING 20:1
WHICH HELPING INFLATE SNOW AMOUNTS. DO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES THE DIVIDE AND PUSHES THE SOUTHERN
CIRCULATION WELL ONTO THE PLAINS. HIGH MOUNTAIN FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
ENDING BY SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL IN
QUITE SOME TIME. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEAR SKIES
WE WILL BOTTOM OUT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MEANS OUR COLD POOLS
SHOULD REACT AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY AREAS. DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN AND
SURROUNDING COLD VALLEYS LEADING TO IT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE BASED WITH THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION SET UP ON THE HORIZON.
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORM AS WELL BUT
DROPPING DEW POINTS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT CONTINUE TO FLIP BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. ONE SCENARIO
HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG IT EASTERN FLANK OF THE
HIGH BRINGING REMNANTS OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) MOVING IN
THROUGH WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WESTERN
COLORADO WITH IVTS > 200 KG/M/S AND PWATS > 200% NORMAL. THIS
SCENARIO SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SECOND SCENARIO
HAS THE HIGH BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING THE SHORTWAVES
AND MOISTURE TO THE EAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. GUIDANCE IS
INDECISIVE WITH POPS ONLY 20-40% ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE TUESDAY AND A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THESE SYSTEMS. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON HOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL TURN OUT BY SUNDAY AND THE
SECOND, LATE WEEK SYSTEM BY ABOUT TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH/RIDGE TO THE WEST INCREASE H500 HEIGHTS. THE EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY AND CONTINUE CLIMBING TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AGAIN, THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED SHOULD THE WITH THE FIRST SCENARIO
ABOVE WITH RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE STAYING FARTHER TO THE WEST
ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. KGUC AND KDRO MAY FOG IN TOMORROW MORNING WITH
THE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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