469
FXUS65 KGJT 101118
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
- WELL BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
GUNNISON...SLATE...EAST AND TAYLOR RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE 10/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP IS SHOWING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE S.ROCKIES AND UPSTREAM RIDGING OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS THE RESULT ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH MEANS THE BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS FLOW IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR PINNING
DENDRITIC RICH MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN SPINE OF OUR
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH PERSISTENT FLURRIES DRIFTING BY THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEBCAMS. WEAK WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME DRYING
SHOULD WORK ON SCOURING OUT THE OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS. THE NEXT
BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE WELL ELEVATED...SPREADING HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
WARM UP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRENGTHENED INVERSION PROFILES AND DAILY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO PLAY...WHICH
LATELY IS NORMAL. NOT SURE IF IT IS THE LACK OF DEEPER SNOW
COVER OR JUST THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN BUT SOME THE HIGH
VALLEYS/BASINS OF THE E.CENTRAL CWA ARE NOT RESPONDING AS THE
TYPICAL POST COLD FRONT CONDITIONS...AND THE COLD POOLS ARE NOT
SO COLD. SO WILL BE RE-EVALUATING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF WARM, QUIET
WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH UNTIL A REDUCTION IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO ADVECT
INTO THE NORTHWEST. AN INCREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WEST
COAST RIDGING, AND A TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WILL
ALLOW FOR THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (MAX PWATS NEAR 175% OF
NORMAL) TO ADVECT INTO OUR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SO, THIS INCREASES POPS BY A BIT MIDWEEK IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS FAVORED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER, POPS DON'T INCREASE BY MUCH, AND PRETTY MUCH NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST RIGHT NOW. OF
COURSE, THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
AND TROUGH TO OUR EAST ENDS UP DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A
MID LEVEL DECK AT KHDN WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-DAY. A LIGHT
WIND PATTERN IS SETTING UP UNDER INVERSION CONDITIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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