538
FXUS65 KGJT 251731
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING 1 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLAT TOPS.
- SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BRING REDUCED
VISBILITIES OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.
- DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
SOME SNOW IS CONTINUING IN AND AROUND VAIL PASS AND THE PARK
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS,
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SO, LIKE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT, ADJUSTED LOWS IN THE COLD POOLS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS, SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, FLAT TOPS, AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
LOW SIDE WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE PARK RANGE AND FLAT
TOPS, AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING VAIL
PASS AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. WE MIGHT NOT SEE SNOW
ACTUALLY END FOR VAIL AND PARK RANGE BECAUSE THE EFFECTS OF THE
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY SO LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THOSE MOUNTAIN PASSES SEEING SNOWFALL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WEST
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT A FEW QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW COULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. HOWEVER,
PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW AS THESE DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA, SO REALLY ONLY VERY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
SEEMS POSSIBLE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THE
MIDWEEK, SO ITS TOUGH TO SAY ANYTHING WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT,
BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE RETURNING
DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT BY THE WEEKEND HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SIT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KASE,
KEGE, AND KHDN, WITH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT KRIL, KTEX,
AND KGUC. CIGS WILL LIKELY PERIODICALLY FALL BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS AS STORMS PASS OVER THESE TERMINALS. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CALMER, YET POTENTIALLY
STILL BREEZY WINDS TAKE OVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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