815
FXUS65 KGJT 262319
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- QUICK-HITTING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING.
- A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW, MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK LEADING TO WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HREF, SUPPORTS A QUICK
ROUND OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND 5 AM-11 AM MT THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FUSS. VISIBILITY MAY DROP AT TIMES,
BUT THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATION IN ANY ONE PLACE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING A WEAK RIDGE RUNNING ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES FROM THE CONUS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RATCHET TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND PERHAPS
NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST
OF THESE DISTURBANCES, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT BASIN AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ORDER TO REACH THE WEST SLOPE. MODEL
ENSEMBLES KEEP MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING
CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW FOR MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL. FRIDAY, A
BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DIRTY RIDGE ALONG A JET MAX THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THIS TIME, POTENTIALLY
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MODEL DISCREPANCY
CREEPS IN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVERHEAD. THIS COULD
PUSH A MORE PRODUCTIVE REGIME ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, GIVEN THE
FLATTER, COLDER SOLUTION FROM THE GFS. THIS COULD ALSO PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM THE PRESENTLY WARMER FORECAST.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS START LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT UPVALLEY WINDS WILL START THE FORECAST
WITH WINDS BECOMING DOWNVALLEY BY OR AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
OVER THE COLDER VALLEYS/BASINS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO PUT IN THE TAFS ATTM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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