405
FXUS65 KGJT 281712
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1012 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS ON TAP FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIPPERY STRETCHES
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, AND DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR MOST.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARDS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL ANTICIPATE IT TO CLIP THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
DOESN'T PACK MUCH OF A PUNCH REGARDING MOISTURE WITH PWAT'S ONLY
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 125-150% OF NORMAL, BUT IT DOES BRING SOME
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. THIS IS GIVING OUR NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW, FOCUSED OVER THE PARK
RANGE NEAR RABBIT EARS PASS AND NEAR THE CO-WY BORDER. THE
STRONGEST SNOWFALL IS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH IT COULD BEGIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL FLUCTUATING A FAIR AMOUNT ON SNOW TOTALS, AND
THUS UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM, IS TRENDING UPWARDS FOR SNOW
TOTALS, BUT A LOT OF THIS WILL HINGE ON THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
STORM. SHOULD MOISTURE STAY FURTHER TO OUR NORTH OR DRAG BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHERE THE BULK OF THE FORCING
WILL BE, WE COULD SEE WEAKER ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW
RATIOS MAY BE RUNNING A TAD TOO HIGH, WHICH COULD BE BULKING UP
THE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS, WE HAVE OPTED TO UP OUR
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY TO 4-7" ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PARK RANGE
WITH 1-3" STILL THE EXPECTATION OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND ELKHEADS.
SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARDS, IT COULD GIVE US BETTER REASON TO HEDGE HIGHER ON THE
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. EITHER WAY, WINTER
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SLICK ROADS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
FURTHER COMPLICATE MOUNTAIN TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES, LESS SO FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THOSE SAME WAVES. AS
FAR AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS CONCERNED, NOT LOOKING GOOD.
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, HIGH TEMPS WILL START INCREASING. BY SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
MONDAY. ON THE HORIZON, A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OF SOME PRECIP ON TUESDAY. OF
COURSE, ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND COVERAGE. THIS FAR OUT
IT'S TO BE EXPECTED SO WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, DO OUR SNOW
DANCE, AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23Z AND 11Z AT KHDN AND CEILINGS BELOW ILS BREAK POINTS
AT KASE AFTER ABOUT 08Z. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT KEGE
AND KRIL COULD ALSO SEE CEILINGS BELOW BREAKPOINTS AFTER ABOUT
06Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page