003
FXUS65 KGJT 291743
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE PARK RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY NEAR RABBIT EARS PASS WHERE ROADS MAY BECOME
SLICK.
- WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS WITH DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGAN FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PARK
RANGE AND THE UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN EARLIER TONIGHT. THE
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS SNOW STAKE CAMERA HAS SEEN RELATIVELY
UNIMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES SO FAR AND IS SITTING NEAR OR UNDER AN
INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. ONE OF THE BIGGEST CULPRITS FOR THIS
HAS BEEN THE UNEXPECTEDLY WARM TEMPERATURES THERE, AND AS SUCH,
SNOW RATIOS ARE LIKELY RUNNING MUCH LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. QPF
HAS STAYED STEADY, BUT WITH CLOUD COVER SETTLING IN, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE HAMPERED AND THE
RESULTING WETTER-THAN-EXPECTED SNOW SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE LIGHTER END FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE NBM IS
BLEAK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PARK RANGE TO EXCEED 4" THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (20-40% CHANCE), BUT WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP
TOTALS OF 3-6" IN THE LATEST FORECAST AS SOME CAM'S ARE HINTING
AT INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES, PRIMARILY NEAR RABBIT EARS PASS,
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. SO THERE REMAINS HOPE THAT THIS
STORM WON'T FIZZLE OUT COMPLETELY. ROADS AT PASS LEVEL ARE
ALREADY BECOMING SNOW-COVERED, SO WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS,
LOOK FOR MOUNTAIN TRAVEL TO BE LESS-THAN-IDEAL WITH SLICK ROADS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EACH WAVE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. OVERALL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT ALTHOUGH THESE WAVES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER COULD
CAUSE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES DAY TO DAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REX BLOCK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY STEER ANY
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AWAY FROM US.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS AT KHDN, KASE AND KEGE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...DB
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