781
FXUS65 KGJT 311122
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
422 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE,
RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY SLICK MORNING COMMUTE AT THE PASSES.
- WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS DROPPING DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWAT ANOMALIES
ARE 160 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC FORCING IS
LACKING AS THE JET STREAK REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION, SO THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT IS NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS IS
EVIDENT ON WEBCAMS SHOWING LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING OVER THE PARK
RANGE AND DOWN TO VAIL PASS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. ONLY ANTICIPATE MAYBE 1 TO 2 INCHES AT BEST AMONG
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SLICK CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASS IN THE MORNING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS WARMING UP TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. COLD POOL BASINS REMAIN A BIT
COLDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO LOWERED TEMPS HERE BUT
THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
A BRIEF SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN. A DRY SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT
CLOUDY SKIES, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ON
TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOTH THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL EACH DEEPEN. WITH US SQUARELY POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE TWO, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP OVERHEAD. THOUGH MOISTURE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH
THIS NEW PATTERN, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO BRING US MUCH MORE THAN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, IF WE SEE ANYTHING AT
ALL. INSTEAD, THE BIGGER INTEREST WILL BE THE BREEZY WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE NBM
INDICATING A >40% CHANCE OF 30+ MPH GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAIN RANGES. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE GET STUCK UNDERNEATH ANOTHER
RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
STRATUS CONTINUES OVER KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KGUC, AND KHDN THIS
MORNING. KASE AND KEGE ARE BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AS A RESULT.
LOOK FOR THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE REGION IS CLEAR ASIDE FROM CIRRUS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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