313
FXUS65 KGJT 141734
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1034 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLE FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE LAST SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS
AND FOG FOR SOME PLACES, WHICH WILL MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. LATER TODAY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
THANKS TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOCALIZED FOG AND OR LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS,
AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE INLAND THEY WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR AREA
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH
AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE
WAVE ARRIVES ON LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THOSE SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER LINGER ON TUESDAY AS THE
WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES SWEEPS THROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND AS AN OPEN WAVE AND REACHING OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE SNOW
LEVELS COULD REACH SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES, THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SO WILL NEED TO
IRON OUT THESE DETAILS AS BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACHIEVED, SO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THESE EVENTS.
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL SEE COOLER,
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MOUNTAINS FINALLY GETTING SOME DECENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS...FOG AND VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
IMPACTING THE MOUNTAIN TAFS WITH IMPROVEMENT OVER MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS FADING. TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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