206
FXUS65 KGJT 151131
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
431 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLE FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EDGING INTO EASTERN UTAH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SAN
JUAN RIVER BASIN WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MUCH OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. IT IS SLOWLY ERODING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT STILL EXPECT STRATUS
TO REMAIN PRESENT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN ARCHULETA
COUNTY AND AROUND PAGOSA SPRINGS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PREVALENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ENDING UP AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THIS
WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE CLOSER ON MONDAY,
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND
BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE ON AVERAGE WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. MONDAY PROVES TO BE OUR
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS MUCH COOLER AND
UNSETTLED TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PRESENT. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND, THE JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JET STREAK OF 150 TO 170 KTS ROUNDING
THE BASE ACROSS SOCAL INTO ARIZONA. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MONDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT OR
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHAT WE MAY END UP SEEING IS SOME VIRGA
SHOWERS THAT COULD ACT TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER SPINS INTO MOTION TUESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACNW.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT JET ON ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RUNS FROM
SOCAL UP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. SIZABLE GRADIENTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 170KTS WORKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO TUESDAY. WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS 30-40 MPH AND OVER
50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, AND PROBABLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) WILL SUPPLY AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TOO. LEFT EXIT
REGION FORCING AND AR MOISTURE SHOULD SET UP SOME STRONG SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS. THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD EASILY SEE 6 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE MID-DAY
TUESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE TIME-BEING, BUT
GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND PERSISTENT SNOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING FROM TUESDAY MORNING AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TOO,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE JET MAX.
THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT, THAT FINALLY DROPS
INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG BANDS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE POINTS TO A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MIGHT NOT GET US BACK TO NORMAL, BUT IT
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE SAVED SOME WINTER FOR US.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER,
WITH GRAY SKIES AND THE MILD CONDITIONS OF THIS WEEKEND STILL
FRESH IN OUR MINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO LIFT IN OUR DESERT
VALLEYS SATURDAY, BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED AGAINST THE DIVIDE WILL
LIKELY KEEP GRAY SKIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP AT KTEX AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEER
(LLWS) IMPACTING MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 00Z, ESPECIALLY KASE,
KEGE AND KTEX.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...DB
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