596
FXUS65 KGJT 152349
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND
30-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- A WINTER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
RIDGING ALOFT IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET AND WARM TODAY.
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WHICH HAS BROUGHT INCREASED CLOUD COVER.TONIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, A MORE
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THESE
TWO WAVES WILL EVENTUALLY REACH OUR CWA DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, BRINGING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM. ON MONDAY, AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUOUS CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THANKS TO
RIDGING ALOFT AND WAA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM, AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-50 MPH AND PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
AND FORCING FROM THE WAVE ARRIVES ON LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THOSE SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER
LINGER ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THAT COMBINED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IN FACT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, IF THE FRONT CAN NOT
GENERATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THERE WILL STILL BE WIND AND SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE.
THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE SNOW LEVELS COULD
REACH SOME OF THE VALLEYS AND SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
MID LEVEL JET. THEREFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, SO THAT
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. SNOWFALL
TOTALS FROM BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-20 INCHES IN
GENERAL FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS RANGES ABOVE 8 KFT. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE SKI TOWNS COULD SEE
AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE TWO ROUNDS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THAT THE AIR MASS IS COOLER, BUT NOT ARCTIC, SO DAY TIME HIGHS MAY
REACH OR GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY VALLEYS RESULTING IN IMPROVED
ROAD CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNINGS MAY BE WHEN WE SEE THE
WORST IMPACTS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE MAY BE A LULL AT
SOME POINT ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE THIRD AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE SO DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR.
AS OF NOW IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN BROKEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS
HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND VFR. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES
INCLUDING KASE, KEGE AND KTEX AS A STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ003-005-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR UTZ023-028.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page