029
FXUS65 KGJT 162339
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50
MPH AND UPWARDS OF 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 9 AM.
- GUSTY WINDS PERSIST ALL DAY. SNOW IMPROVES FOR THE VALLEYS
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
- ANOTHER ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
25-50 MPH AND UPWARDS OF 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST IS STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND BY LATE EVENING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES. WINDS ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG JET SPREADS
OVERHEAD. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICK, BUT INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES
FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT MAY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, BUT ROADS
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT SUPPORT ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT
RATES COULD OVERCOME THAT AND THE RESULT WOULD BE SLICK SPOTS. THE
OTHER IMPACT ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE WIND GUSTS AS THESE
SHOWERS MAY ALLOW FOR THOSE STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LOWER VISIBILITY DRASTICALLY AND CAUSE
TRAVEL ISSUES THAT WAY TOO. THE ROADS MAY GO FROM DRY TO HAVING A
FEW INCHES IN 0.5-1 HOUR WITH NEAR WHITE OUT. THOSE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT JUST KNOW THAT
CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY ALONG THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEYS ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 30-50
MPH WILL BE COMMON AND AS HIGH AS 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD STILL CAUSE TRAVEL
IMPACTS ON THE PASSES EVEN THOUGH THE RATES DECREASE. SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EVENING, BUT MANY PLACE
WILL SEE LOWS AROUND FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHICH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SECOND ROUND. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE
COVERAGE AND RATES INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERALL SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON SOME
OF THE ROADWAYS MAKING FOR IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS CONFIDENT IN A SECOND ROUND OF ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER MOISTURE ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER BURST OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WELL, WHICH SHOULD PLUMMET AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS (AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN BASINS AND VALLEYS). OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH. REGARDLESS, THE COOLING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BRING MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION ABOVE SNOW LEVELS, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW. THOUGH SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY, LOW
ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE GRAND VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH MORE THAN WET, POTENTIALLY
SLUSHY SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATION GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE, OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE FLUFFIER
SNOWFALL WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12" AND HIGHER LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
RANGES.
THINGS BEGIN TO CALM DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE COULD PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING ONE MORE BOUT OF
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN COLORADO, FOCUSED ON THE SAN JUANS AND THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. ENSEMBLES ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC THOUGH,
SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ARRIVING AND LOSING
THE SUPPORT NEEDED TO GENERATE THESE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN
IF WE DO GET THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, RISING TEMPERATURES
WILL HINDER SNOW LEVELS AND RATIOS, SO WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT
LOWER ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE WETTER SCENARIO. NBM IS PEAKING AT
~50% CHANCE OF 6+" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND <30% OVER OTHER HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. WE WILL ELABORATE
MORE ON THIS BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE
CONVERGES, BUT IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD,
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL INDUCE LLWS
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NEARLY ALL TERMINALS CARRYING
LLWS. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NEXT SIX HOURS, DROPPING BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE, KEGE, KRIL FIRST BY 06Z, WITH OTHER
TERMINALS BY 12Z. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY
TONIGHT, DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. AS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE INCREASES, VIS WILL DROP FOR MOST TERMINALS. PREVAILING
MVFR TO IFR MIXES IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, WITH PREVAILING IFR
TO LIFR AFTER 12Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ003-005-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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