799
FXUS65 KGJT 170604
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH
AND UPWARDS OF 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 9 AM.
- GUSTY WINDS PERSIST ALL DAY. SNOW IMPROVES FOR THE VALLEYS
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
- ANOTHER ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
25-50 MPH AND UPWARDS OF 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL
MAKE MOUNTAIN TRAVEL VERY CHALLENGING, WITH PASS LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE 10-20 INCH RANGE FOR MOST MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN A FEW FAVORED LOCALES LIKE THE
HIGHWAY 550 CORRIDOR. BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
COZ003 TO ACCOUNT FOR AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY ON
DOUGLAS PASS, WHERE DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY NASTY.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO RATCHET UP THIS EVENING AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE 180KT JET MAX WORKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT, INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIME FOR
MORNING COMMUTES ON TUESDAY. SOME BANDED SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO ADD TO TRAVEL HEADACHES AS HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A CONCENTRATED LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH
FROM AROUND 0300 MDT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ONCE THIS
SHOT IS THROUGH, SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, THE EXCESSIVE WIND SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW SNOW AROUND MAKING IT SEEM MUCH WORSE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WORK THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, NOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
IN THE NEW AIR MASS. WINDS WILL FINALLY LIGHTEN UP A BIT TOO
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER DOWN TO LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A BROAD, COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THAT CHARACTERIZED THE WEEK TO THIS POINT. WITHIN THE
BROADER CIRCULATION, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES ARE
ROTATING THROUGH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY, AS ONE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS AND ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEFLY QUIETER, WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE EJECTING PLAINS SHORTWAVE, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS SET TO BE OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKER, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND SOME FACTORS WORKING AGAINST IT. MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WELL ENOUGH ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING IT THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT DISAGREE ON ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK. DETERMINISTIC GFS
DIGS A STRONG, DEEP TROUGH THAT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS,
WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE KEEP IT WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES ALSO SEEM TO FAVOR THE
WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. EVEN WITH THE MOST PROMISING OF THE
POSSIBLE TRACKS, THERE COMES THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT. EVEN THE STRONGEST SYSTEM CAN'T PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
WITHOUT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND UNFORTUNATELY CURRENT GUIDANCE
ISN'T THAT PROMISING. ENSEMBLE PWAT GUIDANCE IS FAVORING BELOW
NORMAL (40-60% OF NORMAL) PWATS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NORMAL CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS. AR MOISTURE FORECASTS
ARE ALSO RATHER ANEMIC, WITH WEAK AR MOISTURE MAKING IT TO, AT BEST,
THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL
HIGHLIGHTING A 40-60% CHANCE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN RANGES ON FRIDAY. SO DESPITE ALL THE
STRIKES AGAINST THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED, AS THIS FORECAST IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EVOLVING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND PRECIPITATION FILLS IN. KASE, KRIL, AND KEGE WILL DROP
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS BY 12Z, WITH REMAINING TERMINALS SEEING
PERIODS BELOW BREAKPOINTS THROUGH 18Z AT THE EARLIEST. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LOWER VISIBILITY, WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY 1 MILE OR LESS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND PERIODS OF GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z, WITH MVFR TO IFR
PREVAILING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH AS KASE AND
KTEX, WILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM 12Z ONWARD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-014-020>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ005-023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-
028.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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