852
FXUS65 KGJT 172356
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-50 MPH AND UPWARDS OF 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SUNRISE, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
- ANOTHER ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
25-50 MPH AND UPWARDS OF 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
TRANSIENT RIDGING OVER THE WEST SLOPE HAS CLEARED SKIES AND
LEFT BEHIND DRIER CONDITIONS, SEEN THROUGH A STARK DROP IN
PWAT'S IN THE 18Z SOUNDING. THIS RIDGE COINCIDES WITH THE
PASSING OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN TWO ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FIRST
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS WHAT PROMPTED MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE SECOND IS
ANTICIPATED TO REINVIGORATE SHOWERS REGION-WIDE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW. WE'RE SITTING AT THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
AR THOUGH, AND SO MOISTURE SUPPLY IS LOOKING TO BE LOWER THAN
IT WAS WITH THE FIRST AR. THIS IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ENSEMBLES AS WELL WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING WETTER (PWAT'S
125-175% OF NORMAL) THAN THE GEFS (PWAT'S 100-125% OF NORMAL).
THOSE VALUES AREN'T IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS, BUT IT'S ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THANKS TO A COINCIDING
COMBINATION OF IMPROVING PVA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACNW TROUGH,
THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM, AND THE PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS WELL, POTENTIALLY
BELOW MOST VALLEYS, MEANING PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY, IF NOT ENTIRELY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VALLEYS
WILL STILL SIT BELOW 4" OF ACCUMULATION BY THURSDAY MORNING
THOUGH. MEANWHILE, MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
10-15" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AND HIGHER VALUES ABOVE
PASSES.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
(AND BEYOND) AS WELL. MOST VALLEY ZONES ARE NEARING OR EXCEEDING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (45+ MPH GUSTS) AND COULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO HIT 50-70
MPH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TOO. STRONG GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL 5 AM, AT WHICH POINT HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 45+ MPH GUSTS COULD REDEVELOP WITHIN
VALLEYS. HREF GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON POWERFUL GUSTS AROUND
SUNRISE WITHIN THE GRAND VALLEY TOMORROW, THOUGH IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT THESE GUSTS WILL REACH THE SAME STRENGTH AS THEY DID LAST
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 45+ GUSTS ALONG
THE US-40 CORRIDOR, AND HIGHER IN GUST POTENTIAL AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH SITS UNDERNEATH THE JET. GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD
OF THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL SIMILARITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
WE'VE OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL VALLEY ZONES FROM 5
AM TO 5 PM TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO ON THURSDAY, AS ONE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEFLY QUIETER, WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EJECTING PLAINS SHORTWAVE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS SET TO BE OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKER, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE OPEN WAVE WILL TRACK
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PWATS
AROUND 40-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NORMAL CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS. AR MOISTURE FORECASTS
ARE ALSO RATHER ANEMIC, WITH WEAK AR MOISTURE MAKING IT TO, AT BEST,
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-70, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
AVIATION PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO LLWS AT MANY OF OUR
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS DO ABATE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING, BUT
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG. CEILINGS AT MOUNTAIN SITES AND
INTERMITTENTLY AT THE LOW VALLEYS WILL STICK AROUND MVFR AND IFR
BREAKPOINTS, AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER VISIBILITY
INTERMITTENTLY TOO. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER WEDNESDAY EVENING,
BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD UNDER BREAKPOINT
CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-014-020>022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-014-020>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ005-023.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-
028.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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