108
FXUS65 KGJT 190004
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
504 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH AND UPWARDS OF 70 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
- A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH 50-
70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH
GUSTS. THIS DOES INTRODUCE A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW,
WITH RAIN TO A RAIN SNOW MIX LIMITED TO LOWER VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEY FLOORS WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW,
BUT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY
MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4-12 INCHES GENERALLY
ABOVE 8 KFT. BELOW THAT ELEVATION, TOTALS WILL BE UNDER 4 INCHES
WITH NOT MUCH BELOW 6 KFT. THERE COULD BE DIFFICULT TRAVEL OVER THE
PASSES DURING THURSDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME STILL
BREEZY WINDS ALOFT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
MOUNTAINS STAY GUSTY INTO TOMORROW. A RIDGE BUILDS IN BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY MORNING.
IT PICKS UP ANOTHER SHOT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, LIKELY SOME LEFTOVER
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM CYCLE. THE PEAK RATES WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED WITH AMOUNTS IN
GENERAL AROUND 6-12 INCHES AND LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-70. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS COULD END UP WITH WITH AROUND 3-6
INCHES. THE SNOW GETS GOING THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OR EVENING. THE GENEROUS COLD AIR IN
PLACE AND HIGHER LIQUID SNOW RATIOS WILL JACK UP ACCUMULATIONS A BIT
TOO.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AS CLOUD COVER HANGS UP ON THE TERRAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND
CEILINGS LIFTING OUT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH KEGE AND
KASE WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WHETHER THEY WILL LIFT ABOVE BREAKPOINT FOR
CEILINGS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-014-020>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ005-023.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ022-024-027-
029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-
028.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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