487
FXUS65 KGJT 190600
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STARTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN UTAH AND MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING, WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. SKIES ARE
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS STILL LINGERING CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, THOUGH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE IN THE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS
THAN 2 INCHES FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH LIGHTENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, AS
WELL AS THE MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FEBRUARY NORMS. AREAS
PRONE TO COLD POOLING AND THAT HAVE FRESH SNOW COULD SEE LOWS DROP
EVEN FURTHER. TRANSIENT RIDGING BUILDS IN TOMORROW, KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS MOSTLY CALM. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY, RUNNING 10-
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RESPITE ONLY LASTS FOR AROUND 12
HOURS, HOWEVER, AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP INTO ANOTHER WEAK AR, BRINGING
FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 100-150% OF NORMAL UP INTO AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THIS IS HARDLY THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WE'VE SEEN, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT
WILL MAXIMIZE WHAT THIS MOISTURE CAN DO. FOR ONE, THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW WILL TAKE IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH IS A VERY FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MAXIMIZE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING PVA AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL ADD SOME STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS. ALL TOGETHER, THIS MEANS THAT THE
SOUTHERN, AND SOME CENTRAL, MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE LOOKING AT ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTING A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF SNOW
TOTALS ABOVE 6 INCHES, AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF TOTALS ABOVE 10 INCHES
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 9000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, THOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT WE'VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH,
WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SAN JUANS, SEEING
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. ONE PLACE WHERE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS. FORECAST
TOTALS ARE SUB-ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, RISING TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY
IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SCENARIO FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO OVER-PERFORM AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION
COOLS THE COLUMN AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SO STAY TUNED, AS THESE AREAS MAY JOIN IN ON HIGHLIGHTS.
THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH A FINAL, THOUGH
WEAKER, COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, PLUS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND BRING ABOUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FAVORED
SLOPES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A LULL IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARRIVES SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
NORTHWEST, KEEPING SOME COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A CHANGE. THE JET STREAM CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE CONUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RECOVERING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED CLOUD COVER
WILL STREAM THROUGH THE DIRTY RIDGE, LIKELY IMPACTING HIGHS. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GET BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEXT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE JET SINKS SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANY UNSETTLED
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, NOW PUSHING MORE OF THE MOISTURE NORTH, VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES THUS
FAR. FOR NOW, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONAL TO
ITS NORTH AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW MODEL SOLUTIONS COALESCE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY TAPERING THURSDAY MORNING. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR KEGE AND KASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
PERHAPS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVERNIGHT AND BE
LIGHTER ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS ON THE TERRAIN IN THE 20-
25 MPH RANGE, WHILE VALLEYS WILL BE MUCH MORE SHELTERED, GUSTING UP
TO 20 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR KCNY AND KTEX TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME EARLY SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ005-023.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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