196
FXUS65 KGJT 192026
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
126 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STARTS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST MOUNTAIN ZONES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WEAKER FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST A TRANSIENT
RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT UNDER THIS PATTERN AS
PWAT'S HAVE DIPPED TO 0.12 IN. PER THE 18Z GJT SOUNDING, WHICH
PLACES US IN THE BOTTOM 10% OF CLIMATOLOGY. IT'S JARRING GIVEN
THE STRONG MOISTURE WE JUST HAD PASS THROUGH. NONETHELESS, THIS
HAS LEFT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
BEFORE WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THOUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ONE LAST PUSH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS DON'T
VIEW THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE AS PARTICULARLY STRONG AS PWAT'S
ONLY RISE TO ~120-140% OF NORMAL, BUT FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THIS MILD MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST BE DEEP. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A RESULT, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED, LASTING UNTIL 11 PM ON FRIDAY.
PVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE SHORTWAVE, AS WILL MOISTURE. THIS DIRECTS OUR FOCUS TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS ARE LOOKING RESPECTABLE
ACROSS THE ABAJOS, LA SALS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU, AND SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT SNOW RATIOS MAY LEAN LOWER THAN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COINCIDING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE FORECAST IS STILL
CALLING FOR 16- TO 17-TO-1 SNOW RATIOS, SO MANY AREAS SHOULD
STILL SEE A FLUFFY SNOWFALL EVEN IF THESE RATIOS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS MANY MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED, BUT SNOW TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY BEING HELD BELOW 12" IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
(ASIDE FROM SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOWFALL WHICH IS POSSIBLE
ABOVE PASS LEVEL). WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6-12" IN
THE MOUNTAINS, AND BETWEEN 3-8" IN VALLEYS ALONG THE CO-NM AND
UT-AZ BORDERS, ALL OF THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY (>75%
CHANCE) OF EXPERIENCING ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL. FURTHER NORTH,
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER IN THE MORNING
BETWEEN 2-5 AM. MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DWINDLE IN
THESE AREAS, LEADING TO LOWER AND MORE UNCERTAIN SNOW TOTALS.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, LOOK FOR PLACES LIKE THE TAVAPUTS AND
SOUTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA TO REACH ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWFALL (6-10 INCHES). THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE IFFY IN
VALLEYS ALONG I-70 WHICH MAY BE TOO SHIELDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. WE'VE OPTED TO LEAVE VAIL PASS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
REASON, THOUGH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES MAY REQUIRE THEM TO BE
ADDED SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFT IN A WETTER DIRECTION.
PRACTICE CAUTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THIS IS TRUE NOT ONLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-50 WHERE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY, BUT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE BE
WEATHER-AWARE AND UP- TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST CONDITIONS SHOULD
YOU EXPECT TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA KEEPING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON THOUGH DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG
JET STREAK OF OVER 150KTS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW
THESE CLOUDS TO FORM AND PERSIST. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS, A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS WITH HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN WARM
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES. BY TUESDAY, THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL START MOVING THROUGH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS MAY BE THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW, EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO
ANOTHER OPEN WAVE, AND MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN SYSTEMS
SO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS INCREASED FROM, ESSENTIALLY
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN IS FAVORED FOR SNOW WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS THANKS TO
THE WARM CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EVEN SO, SNOW
LEVELS ARE SHOWING THEY'LL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN SEEN
PREVIOUSLY AND THE SECOND SYSTEM (WED - THUR) MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
VALLEY SNOW MAKING AN APPEARANCE. ALL THAT BEING SAID, THE
USUAL CAVEATS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME CHANGES EXPECTED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT DUE TO DISCREPANCIES ALREADY APPARENT IN
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
SOME MIDLEVEL CEILINGS PERSIST AT KASE, KEGE, AND KHDN AND WILL
LIKELY FLUCTUATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE FEW TO SCATTERED SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED HOWEVER. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND 25KTS OR SO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL START MOVING IN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR MOST TAF SITES TO ALLOW FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z. BY 12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES WILL BE MOVING FROM VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES
UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE MET FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ003-009-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ017-019-021>023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
UTZ025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-028.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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