858
FXUS65 KGJT 192357
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
457 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STARTS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST MOUNTAIN ZONES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WEAKER FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST A TRANSIENT
RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT UNDER THIS PATTERN AS
PWAT'S HAVE DIPPED TO 0.12 IN. PER THE 18Z GJT SOUNDING, WHICH
PLACES US IN THE BOTTOM 10% OF CLIMATOLOGY. IT'S JARRING GIVEN
THE STRONG MOISTURE WE JUST HAD PASS THROUGH. NONETHELESS, THIS
HAS LEFT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
BEFORE WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THOUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ONE LAST PUSH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS DON'T
VIEW THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE AS PARTICULARLY STRONG AS PWAT'S
ONLY RISE TO ~120-140% OF NORMAL, BUT FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THIS MILD MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST BE DEEP. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A RESULT, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED, LASTING UNTIL 11 PM ON FRIDAY.
PVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE SHORTWAVE, AS WILL MOISTURE. THIS DIRECTS OUR FOCUS TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS ARE LOOKING RESPECTABLE
ACROSS THE ABAJOS, LA SALS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU, AND SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT SNOW RATIOS MAY LEAN LOWER THAN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COINCIDING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE FORECAST IS STILL
CALLING FOR 16- TO 17-TO-1 SNOW RATIOS, SO MANY AREAS SHOULD
STILL SEE A FLUFFY SNOWFALL EVEN IF THESE RATIOS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS MANY MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED, BUT SNOW TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY BEING HELD BELOW 12" IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
(ASIDE FROM SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOWFALL WHICH IS POSSIBLE
ABOVE PASS LEVEL). WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6-12" IN
THE MOUNTAINS, AND BETWEEN 3-8" IN VALLEYS ALONG THE CO-NM AND
UT-AZ BORDERS, ALL OF THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY (>75%
CHANCE) OF EXPERIENCING ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL. FURTHER NORTH,
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER IN THE MORNING
BETWEEN 2-5 AM. MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DWINDLE IN
THESE AREAS, LEADING TO LOWER AND MORE UNCERTAIN SNOW TOTALS.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, LOOK FOR PLACES LIKE THE TAVAPUTS AND
SOUTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA TO REACH ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWFALL (6-10 INCHES). THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE IFFY IN
VALLEYS ALONG I-70 WHICH MAY BE TOO SHIELDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. WE'VE OPTED TO LEAVE VAIL PASS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
REASON, THOUGH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES MAY REQUIRE THEM TO BE
ADDED SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFT IN A WETTER DIRECTION.
PRACTICE CAUTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THIS IS TRUE NOT ONLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-50 WHERE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY, BUT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE BE
WEATHER-AWARE AND UP- TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST CONDITIONS SHOULD
YOU EXPECT TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS WE START THE DAY OUT WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL START OUT
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP TO
SEASONAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ABOVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE, PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR AS THE
JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE THE JET STREAM WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THESE CLOUDS, NO MIDDLE LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
WILL PRESENT THEMSELVES TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO BE GENERATED. LOOKING
AHEAD TO TUESDAY THOUGH, THE JET STREAM WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND TAP INTO SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AS A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SETS UP
JUST TO OUR NORTH. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW PLACING SOME PRECIP
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS MAY ALSO AID IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION. MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE THOUGH AS EC ENSEMBLES WANT
TO KEEP THE BIGGEST SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE GEFS BRINGS IT
INTO OUR CWA AND BECOMES THE FOCUS OF PRECIP. FOR NOW, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THOUGH A GLIMMER OF HOPE REMAINS
FOR MORE PRECIP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 446 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM, WHICH BEGINS TONIGHT. IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KDRO AND KTEX FIRST, BUT CHANCES OF SNOW WILL SPREAD
TO MOST SITES AFTER 06Z. IMPACTS INCLUDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS, AND DROPS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. THE HEAVIEST,
AND MOST CONTINUOUS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE HOURS AROUND
12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
BUT GUSTY WINDS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MAY CAUSE POOR VISIBILITY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ003-009-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ017-019-021>023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
UTZ025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-028.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page