674
FXUS65 KGJT 201203
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW HAS BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST MOUNTAIN ZONES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, PRIMARILY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM HAS BEGUN AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH TO OUR WEST ENTERS OUR CWA. THIS ENERGY HAS PROVIDED
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70.
SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE CWA AROUND
12Z. TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOWER VALLEY AREAS ARE HOVERING AROUND
FREEZING AT THE MOMENT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY, WHICH SHOULD CHANGE ANY WINTRY
MIXES OVER TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS PVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PROPAGATING TROUGH, AND OROGRAPHICS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
PROVIDE LIFT. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ONLY RAISE PWATS TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT THE ABUNDANCE
OF FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN, AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN INCH OR TWO IN
SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PVA REMAINS SOUTH OF I-70.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO LEAVE VAIL PASS OUT OF THE ADVISORIES AS
SNOW TOTALS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VAIL PASS AREA, AND OVER MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT LOWER VALLEYS COULD EXCEED FREEZING, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST, DRIER AIR MOVES IN, AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALOFT. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE
TOMORROW NIGHT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE REDUCED, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP, BUT WAA AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE WILL WARM
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CRESTS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING AS DEEP TROUGHING DOMINATES BOTH COASTS.
THIS RIDGING STICKS WITH US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH FLOW
ALOFT ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS WILL ADVECT IN BOTH WARMER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF FEBRUARY, BUT WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS BY
MIDWEEK RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS JET IS SET TO TAP INTO SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AR
MOISTURE, BUT THE TRAJECTORY TAKES THAT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA, WHICH TEND TO WRING OUT MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
BEFORE MAKES IT FAR INLAND. DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ABOUT PWATS CLOSE TO 200% OF NORMAL REACHING
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS
LEAD TIME REMAINS LOW, BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO TRYING TO DRAPE A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ALONG WITH THE STRONG ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST MODEST DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG
WITH SOME FAVORABLE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS. ALL TOGETHER, THIS MEANS
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK,
MAINLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOST TAF SITES WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE AT KDRO, KTEX AND KGUC THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO ILS
BREAKPOINTS OR LOWER AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS RISING ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS
BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR RETURNING AFTER 06Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ003-009-012-013-017-019-021>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ004.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ022-025-028.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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