646
FXUS65 KGJT 210326
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
826 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST MOUNTAIN
ZONES AND A FEW VALLEYS. TOTAL SNOW REMAINS IN THE 5 TO 10
INCH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 3 TO 6 FOR THE VALLEYS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED. A WARMUP KICKS IN SUNDAY ONWARDS.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WARNED AREA, AND
AS SUCH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA AS
SNOW CONTINUES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE I-70 CORRIDOR DID WELL AS AN H7 AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDED ADDED LIFT, ALONG WITH SOME PVA, CAUSING
PROLONGED SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. DID ADD I-70 ZONES TO THE
ADVISORIES FROM DEBEQUE CANYON EASTWARD AS TREACHEROUS
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON WEBCAMS. CURRENTLY, LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING, IF SUN MAKES IT THROUGH
THE CLOUDS, MAY ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID, ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SE UTAH IS DONE SO WILL CANCEL THE
ADVISORIES WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. WILL LEAVE REMAINING
ADVISORIES IN PLACE BUT EXPECT THEY'LL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED DOWN
EARLY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOOK FOR A BRISK START TO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, IN THE USUAL FAVORED
AREAS, THANKS TO ALL THE MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S SYSTEM GENERALLY
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH. RIDGING BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
AFTER GETTING A TASTE OF SOME TRUE WINTER WEATHER OVER THE PAST
WEEK, THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RETURN US TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWER VALLEYS HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
STAYING NEAR-NORMAL AT LEAST, BUT ASIDE FROM THESE LOCATIONS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAVILY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACNW EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH BEGINS TO
DESCEND SOUTHWARDS ON TUESDAY. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
SHIFTS THE OVER 140-KT JET STREAK TOWARDS OUR CWA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE JET STREAK WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS NOT CERTAIN YET WITH
THE GFS SIGNALING A MUCH MORE PROMINENT WEAKENING THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THOUGH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE QPF WITH GEFS CLUSTERS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
DRIER. THESE MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON GENERALLY OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHERE THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN JET STREAK
STRENGTH IS HAVING A MAJOR IMPACT ON FORECASTING THOUGH IS IN
WINDS. COMPARING THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS SHOWS SURFACE GUST
FORECASTS VARYING BY AS MUCH AS 25 MPH DURING MID-WEEK
AFTERNOONS. THAT'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN SPECULATING HOW
IMPACTFUL WINDS COULD BECOME AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
ULTIMATELY, TRYING TO QUANTIFY THE DETAILS OF STORM REMAINS TOO
MUCH OF A SHOT IN THE DARK RIGHT NOW, SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP
WATCHING HOW MODELS EVOLVE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO ARRIVE IN SOME CAPACITY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z. AFTER THIS POINT, CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT DROPS TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS PASS OVER TERMINALS AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
GUSTY THROUGH 06Z, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AFTER
06Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AND BECOMING GENERALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY FOR KDRO, KGUC, AND KVEL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...TGJT
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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