356
FXUS65 KGJT 210516
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER TOMORROW, THOUGH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND STARTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RETURN OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS SNOW HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION, ALL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN, THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AT BEST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW, LEADING
TO LOWS TOMORROW MORNING RUNNING 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION, THANKS TO MOISTURE NOW TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS, FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW, STARTING A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WE REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET THAT HAS SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH, WHICH WILL
BRING PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED TOMORROW
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE
MORE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT
SHOULD JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
GETS UNDERWAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE AXIS OF A RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
RIDGING WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF WARM, QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON TUESDAY MOISTURE MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION. BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY PWATS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL. MOISTURE ANOMALIES PEAK
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING, MEANING SNOWFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE DEPENDENT ON
OROGRAPHIC LIFT DURING MUCH OF THE TIME MOISTURE IS ELEVATED. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY, SO OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE
FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PULL A NARROW BAND OF VORTICITY
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN TIME ENSEMBLES DIVERGE
REGARDING MOISTURE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE WHEN LIFT INCREASES. THE ECMWF ENS SEEMS TO FAVOR LESS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, AND A QUICKER RETURN TO NORMAL, WHEN COMPARED TO
THE GFS ENS. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND
CONSISTENCY REGARDING EXPECTED SNOWFALL. DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS ON THE ONSET OF THIS
SNOWFALL. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS, BUT
IS INCREASING THAT LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINS LATE TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
ISOLATED, VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG NEAR KDRO, KGUC,
AND KVEL OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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