126
FXUS65 KGJT 070538 CCA
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
REPLACED AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH CORRECT ONE FOR 06Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING, ENDING OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND BEYOND.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION RATES LESSENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERGOES A SPLIT WITH A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS LINGERING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE BAJA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION BEYOND
MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THIS
COL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE CUT OFF
LOW SITTING OVER THE BAJA. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
SHOWERS COULD POP OVER THE SAN JUANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
LINGERING MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING EXISTS TO SUSTAIN
ANYTHING, SO MAY END UP SEEING A FEW CUMULUS POP AND THAT'S
ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY
GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE AND SOME WAA UNDER THIS COL, WITH HIGHS NEAR
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BUMP UP
A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME DUE TO A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM BUT EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS AND DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SEASONAL SHIFT LOOKS TO BE IMMINENT AS THE POLAR JET SETS UP
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCK
OUT ANY ARCTIC AIR, WHILE THE PERSISTENT WARM AIR MASS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS STICKS AROUND. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THIS COMING WEEK, NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS CONSISTENTLY NOT WINTER-
LIKE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL AMPLIFY MONDAY,
PUTTING A KINK IN THE JET OVER THE PACNW, AS A JET STREAK DIGS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
OUR WINDS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES OVER NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL TAKE A HIT WEDNESDAY AS THIS CLIPPER WAVE GLANCES
NORTHERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL DIP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER NORTHWARD, WHILE DOWN SOUTH THE FRONT QUICKLY
WASHES OUT. NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SNEAK IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER SOUTH TOO AS THE JET SETTLES FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO CARRY SOME WEAK MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND UPWARD THOUGH, AS LITTLE COLD AIR CAN BE HAD SOUTH OF
THE JET. HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE LOW DESERTS AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEEK'S END. MODELS KEEP THE JET
DIPPING IN AND OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO TOO, PERHAPS
KEEPING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE FORECAST TOO. QPF VALUES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THOUGH, SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, NAMELY KASE, KEGE, AND KTEX. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ010-
012-017>019.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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