099
FXUS65 KGJT 081123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
523 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY CLIMBING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND HIGHER YET ON MONDAY.
- WEAK SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING NEAR-RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 844 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN ELONGATED, HEAVILY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND NEARLY 10
DEGREES. THIS PUTS US BACK OVER CLIMATOLOGY BY NEARLY AS MUCH. COLD
FRONTS COME AND THEY GO...QUICKLY THIS SEASON. THE JET MAX/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LET WINDS COME UP ON
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALL
AFTERNOON IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. ELSEWHERE, JUST AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BLUE SKIES. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY AND THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS BAJA WILL
SEND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO RESPOND WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS BACK IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. RECENT MOISTURE MEANS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK, ALONG WITH FUELS, BUT
THESE SPRING TYPE WINDS REMIND ONE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
AROUND THE CORNER. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY BENEATH SUNNY SKIES. QUIET
CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
TREND 10 DEGREES OVER AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 844 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET WORK WEEK IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES, FOR THE
MOST PART, STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SHOCKER. WE'LL START OUT WITH
A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM WHILE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS OUR AREA. JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE JET STREAM WILL SETUP AND
MAY CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK, SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THE JET ALSO EXPLAINS
THE GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, A BIT HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS, TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEPER MIXING. AN EVER SO
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS, MAY ALLOW SOME
PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES RANGE FROM 20 TO 40% THOUGH SO NO REASON TO GET
EXCITED. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION AS HIGHS DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE
VERY SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPERATURES START WARMING BACK UP. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM, THE JET STREAM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BRINGING PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME AREAS. VERY SPRING
LIKE...
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
STRATUS LINGERS NEAR KASE, KEGE, AND KHDN THIS MORNING, BUT IS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE REGION-WIDE. SOME BREEZY
WINDS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH, ESPECIALLY OVER KDRO
WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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