568
FXUS65 KGJT 092331
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
531 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
EACH DAY FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK.
- A PASSING WAVE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
NEAR- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH FROM
WASHINGTON TO MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOW A SUBTROPICAL JET LEAF MOVING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS ENOUGH TO SLOWLY EJECT THE LOW TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IS KEEPING OUR SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR, AND THAT FLOW MIXING DOWN TO GENERATE SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GENERALLY NORTH
OF I-70. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY DRAWING
THE POLAR JET FARTHER SOUTH FORMING A SHORTWAVE, LOOK FOR
STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AND
30-40 MPH NORTH OF I-70. THESE WINDS MIXING DOWN ARE KEEPING
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, RADIATIVE COOLING ALLOWS THE MORNING LOWS IN TO DROP
TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS MIXING FROM WINDS
GUSTING 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOME GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST PULLING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLING IN A COOLER
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING POPS RETURN TO ZERO OR NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SHALLOW TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL PROPAGATES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL DRIVE A
PERIOD OF WARM DAYS WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE
EDGE OF A JET ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-70. THE JET DIPS FURTHER INTO OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE, AND A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
OUR CWA BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM A WEAK MOISTURE
PUSH MAY LEAD TO LESS EFFICIENT MIXING WITH THESE JET WINDS. THE
STRONG GUSTS COUPLED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO SUPPORT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE DRIEST AREAS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE LATE WEEKEND MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
TO NEAR OR ABOVE THRESHOLDS IN AFFECTED AREAS ON SUNDAY.
SPEAKING OF THE MOISTURE PUSH, POPS INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH, AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND FORCING DO NOT LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIAL,
AND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING EVEN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SO, OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT BY THE
WEEKEND HIGHS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OR MORE ARE EXPECTED. THIS
MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
SOME CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIE DOWN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR MOST TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30KTS, OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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