721
FXUS65 KGJT 100420
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH THROUGH THE
WEEK. NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS REACH 40 MPH AT
TIMES.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
NEAR- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS VERY GOOD FROM RUN TO RUN AND LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN
MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SOAR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE JET STREAM, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES, WILL START DROPPING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS, SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS REACHING NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. SPEAKING OF, THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 40% WITH
AMOUNTS ALMOST TOO LOW TO MENTION. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR WILL BE NOTICEABLE FOR THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS AS HIGHS DROP ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES. CENTRAL LOCALES
WILL DROP BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND THE COLD AIR WON'T MAKE IT
OVER THE SAN JUANS SO SOUTHERN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPS
AS WE'VE SEEN LATELY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS CAUSING A BUMP
IN HIGHS AS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH A TIGHTENED GRADIENT THANKS TO A
STRONG JET ALOFT SITTING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE WINDS AND MIXING
WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE JET DIPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS MUCH AS
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS LOWER
VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LOWER DESERT VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST UTAH
FLIRTING WITH LOW 80S. GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE SOUTH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS. ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS MORE ELEVATED SO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT AS MUCH A CONCERN HERE. THE JET WILL
DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER JET
STREAK MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NOT MUCH BUDGE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND THE POLAR JET REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
SOME CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIE DOWN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR MOST TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30KTS, OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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