167
FXUS65 KGJT 101809
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH THROUGH THE
WEEK. NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS REACH 40 MPH AT
TIMES.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
NEAR- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING WITHIN THE
FLOW AROUND A SHALLOW TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AS
THIS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR
CWA, WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ELEVATED POPS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH JUST BARELY REACHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
IT'S EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF LIFT FROM SOME ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY, BUT IT'S
PASSAGE WILL ALSO SHIFT FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH, LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE EVENING TODAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST FORECASTED AMOUNTS BEING JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AT THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE PARK RANGE.
LESS THAN AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED ANYWHERE ELSE SNOW
ACCUMULATES. THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED JET AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT, IS CAUSING STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW, BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RATHER ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A RATHER
EXPANSIVE 160 KT JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO EACH
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THOUGH EVEN THOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, SO THIS WILL TEMPER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HERE. SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER AREA
THAT WILL SEE BREEZIER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO THEY WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY WARM AS WE STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE POLAR JET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 10 TO 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES TO 60S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. SOME DESERT VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST UTAH
COULD REACH LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE CAUSES THE POLAR JET TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH THIS STRONG JET STREAK PASSING THROUGH AS
WELL. MOISTURE DOES REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A BRIEF DIP ON SUNDAY
BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OUT WEST AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MOST AREAS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN AND SNOW MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE PARK RANGE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KHDN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT ASIDE FROM THAT, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KHDN OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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