906
FXUS65 KGJT 110429
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
NEAR- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LOOK
FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES COOLER DOWN SOUTH. THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS STRONG, ABOUT 50 TO 70 KTS AT H500, THE COOLER AIR WILL
LIMIT THESE WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT BEING SAID,
OROGRAPHICS WILL STILL HELP THIS MIXING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY THE UNCOMPAHGRE, THE SAN JUANS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST RAISING H500 HEIGHTS 80 TO 100 METERS
IN 24 HOURS THAT, COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING, WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND
FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, EXPECT MORE EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SOUTH OF I-70 WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN, AND WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH NORTH OF I-70. THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN, AND
EVEN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL BE FAVORED WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS AS THEY'LL BE THE CLOSEST TO THE JET. PLENTY OF
MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BOTH AID IN THESE
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. A JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST
DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING TO THE MID-TEENS FOR SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO AND WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. HAVING
SAID THAT, FUELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE CRITICAL SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WON'T BE NEEDED. EXPECT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGHS REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 10
TO 15...MAYBE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE GRAND VALLEY TOWARDS MOAB ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A PASSING WAVE WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THOUGH LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AS THAT AREA WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET, QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. MIGHT SEE A
FEW INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK RANGE AND LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON SOME OROGRAPHICS BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY BUT DON'T
ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL DROP BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
SUNDAY (MAYBE A BIT MORE IF MOS GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED) BUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK, SO TOO WILL TEMPERATURES
INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO MORE COMMON DOWN-
SLOPE WINDS AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IMPACTING KHDN BETWEEN
0200Z AND 0600Z. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 1600Z AS THE INVERSIONS
BREAK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page