717
FXUS65 KGJT 112325
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST COLORADO
VALLEYS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
STILL A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE PEAKS OF THE GORE
RANGE AND AROUND VAIL PASS LATE THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUN
BREAKING OUT AND WET ROADS AT THE PASSES AT THIS TIME. OVERALL,
WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT IN
THE LONG TERM SECTION. ON THURSDAY, A STRONG 150 KT JET STREAK
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING DUE TO ITS PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED,
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS
WHERE GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. THEREFORE,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NW CO VALLEYS TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN (COZ001-002)
FROM 10 AM MDT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
DEEPER MIXING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE COOL SNAP TODAY. THIS PUTS
HIGHS FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE HOT, DRY, AND
WINDY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO A TROUGH PASSAGE. ON
FRIDAY MIXING WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. MOISTURE IN THE FLOW NEAR
THE JET WILL ADVECT INTO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE PARK RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND ADVECT A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE MONDAY,
STRONGER AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
COULD MEAN HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE DESERT
VALLEY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN SOME AREAS,
WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, FUELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE A CONCERN TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS
HOWEVER AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
THURSDAY AS WE HEAT BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL INITIALLY MEAN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LLWS WHICH THEN BECOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH
OVER NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ001-002.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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