438
FXUS65 KGJT 121120
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
520 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST COLORADO
VALLEYS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
STRONG RIDGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LEAVES MODERATELY FAST NW FLOW FROM THE
PACNW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME IN THIS FLOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH UNDER THE MAIN
JET STREAK ALOFT SO WINDS ARE MORE PROBABLE THAN PRECIPITATION
OVER OUR CWA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AID MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING TAPS
INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH IS PROBABLE (>70%) OVER OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO. GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE YAMPA AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEARBY HIGHER RIDGES. THERE IS ALSO SOME
SIGNALS OF STRONGER GUSTS IN THE EAGLE RIVER VALLEY AND GUNNISON
BASIN BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND DURATION NOT QUITE THERE SO
THE ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WE
BEGIN A WARMING TREND TODAY THAT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SETTLING NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ONLY MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO END OUT THE WEEK. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LACK OF PRECIPITATION EQUATES TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WHICH
WHEN MIXED WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES MEANS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRIDAY EVENING HAS THE JET WELL TO THE NORTH IN A MOSTLY ZONAL
PATTERN WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE UNDERGOES RAPID FRONTOGENESIS AS IT
DESCENDS THROUGH IDAHO INTO WYOMING SATURDAY WITH A 170+ KT
JETSTREAK ON ITS REAR FLANK DIGGING IT DEEPER. THIS SYSTEM HAS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JETSTREAK
PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN OF UTAH AND COLORADO REACHING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL, AND EVEN SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS, BUT
DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ON WHICH TO ACT. THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, THEY WON'T LAST LONG
DEPOSITING ONLY THREE TO SIX INCHES SNOW ON THE PARK RANGE AND LESS
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. WILL STILL MAKE FORA PERIOD
OF SLICK MOUNTAIN ROADS SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR RABBIT EARS
AND VAIL PASSES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED AS IT
PUSHES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN WITH 500 MB WINDS
ABOUT 40 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 100 KTS OVERNIGHT AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NOT LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT HEADLINES FOR WINDS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH ON AND
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS QUICK-MOVING
STORM. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY,
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL DAMPEN
CONVECTION, BUT THE CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY ON THE PARK RANGE WITH
ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY EVENING, RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST
STARTS SLIDING EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO WARM
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK, 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AREA SEEING NEAR 90
WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60'S AND LOWER
70'S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 10 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING LIGHTER. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT KHDN AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ001-002.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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