190
FXUS65 KGJT 131115
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL
SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO OUR NORTH WITH THE JET
RUNNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOCAL/BAJA COAST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DESCENDS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNDERGOING
FRONTOGENESIS AS A HIGH SPEED JETSTREAK DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTH
PUSHING IT INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH BY SATURDAY
EVENING.
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM, WINDY DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING 25 TO 40 MPH NORTH OF I-70 AND 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING 15 TO 25
MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SATURDAY WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES AND WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP ABOUT TEN MPH OVER
FRIDAY'S WINDS WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL
LIKELY PUT OUT AN ADVISORY FOR THE WINDS NORTH OF I-70 FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT AM HOLDING OFF AS THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY BARELY
MEETING THRESHOLDS. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MOSTLY DUE TO OROGRAPHICS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTION WILL START TO INCREASE BY EVENING AS THE
NOSE OF THE JET PUSHES IN OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
DRASTIC CHANGES WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
CLIPPER-ESQUE SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE TYPE OF STORMS MORE WIND THAN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...THOUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN. A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE COUPLET...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 45 TO 55KT H700 WINDS
ALOFT ARE SURE TO BRING SOME STRONGER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
THE FROPA AND ANY NEARBY SHOWERS. SO ANY WIND PRODUCTS THAT MIGHT BE
ON THE BOARD FOR SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 25
DEGREES WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY SETTLING BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MORE WINTER-LIKE THAN THE SPRING WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. LINGERING COLD ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT INFLATED SNOW-TO- LIQUID RATIOS
AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES. SNOW AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO CREEP UP WITH A GENERAL 2-5 INCHES IN MOST AREAS AND 5
TO 10 OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS LOOKS POSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION
KICKS ON BY MONDAY AND FULL-BLOWN LATE SPRING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE TRANSITION TO THE WARMER REGIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE JET PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF
NOTE AS OF YET. A LARGE AND ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN
NOAM BY MID- WEEK AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS MID-
WEEK ONWARD LOOK TO BE REACH 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS 80S IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS AND 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. NIGHTTIME LOWS CONTINUE TO DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
WHERE ARE BIGGEST SNOW PACK RESIDES SO FEEL THE PROBABILITY OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF ISSUES APPEARS TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
PASSING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE, ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z, FOLLOWING TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS.
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS, INCLUDING KASE,
KGUC, AND KHDN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
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