756
FXUS65 KGJT 132332
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
532 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
- WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALSO LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES,
STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS BRIEF COLD SNAP,
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE 150 KT JET LIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TODAY RESULTING IN A
BIT LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
TAKE A TURN UPWARD BY ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S
HIGHS, ENDING UP BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG CONCERN IS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG 170 KT JET STREAK
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING, CAUSING
THE POLAR JET TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BEHIND
IT WITH DEEP MIXING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR MANY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. THE
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH IS NEAR 99 PERCENT
FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH
CLOSE TO 80 PERCENT FOR THE RIFLE TO VAIL CORRIDOR AND GUNNISON
BASIN. IN THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN, THE EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO VALLEYS TEND TO BE FAVORED AS WELL EVEN
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT LOWER. LOOKING AT HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL, THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS HAVE AN 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 75 MPH...HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITIES ARE
MUCH LOWER OF MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR NORTHERN
VALLEYS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO
CAPTURE PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS AS IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
BLOWING ALL NIGHT LONG.
THIS COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO IS PROJECTED TO CAUSE A
RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. H7 TEMPS DROP
WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THIS COLD FRONT, SO WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET FROM 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
THROUGH 9 AM MDT SUNDAY TO CAPTURE THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW, LIKELY TO RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS
AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS COLD SNAP BEFORE THE WARM UP COMMENCES, SO IF YOU
HAVE ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS GIVEN THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES
WE'VE SEEN...MIGHT BE GOOD TO BRING THEM IN OR COVER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WARM ADVECTION KICKS ON BY MONDAY AND FULL-BLOWN LATE-SPRING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE TRANSITION TO THIS WARMER
REGIME MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF NOTE AS OF YET.
A LARGE AND ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
BY MID-WEEK AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS MID-
WEEK ONWARD LOOK TO REACH 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS 80S IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS AND 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF THESE MODEL TRENDS HOLD, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INCLUDING EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. NIGHTTIME LOWS CONTINUE TO DROP NEAR
TO BELOW FREEZING WHERE OUR BIGGEST SNOW PACK RESIDES SO THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF ISSUES APPEARS TO BE LOW, BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE SHOULD DROP OFF BY SUNSET BUT WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THESE
WINDS CREATE AREAS OF LLWS OVERNIGHT WHICH MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS HEATING COMMENCES THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OF 35 TO
50 KTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH 55KTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. THESE
WINDS WILL CREATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE HILLS AND COULD
CREATE AREA OF BLOWING DUST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY BEING
IMPACTED SO VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ001-
002-006>008-011-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ004-010.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ024-
027.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...15/KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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