128
FXUS65 KGJT 140527
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1127 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG GUSTS LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.
- WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND OPEN BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES,
STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS BRIEF COLD SNAP AND
COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW RECORD HIGHS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NO REAL BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND EXCEPT TO ADD
WIND ADVISORIES TO A PORTION THE SOUTHERN CO VALLEYS FOR
PREFRONTAL WINDS TODAY AND STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS TOMORROW.
OUR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE PACNW WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING THE SEATTLE AREA. THAT SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH...COLD AIR AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND QUICKLY ONTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A GOOD PORTION OF THE MOISTURE WILL GET
UTILIZED UPSTREAM OF US BUT THIS CLIPPER WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAKE UP FOR IT WITH A LOT OF WIND.
WINDS LOOK TO GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE OVER A MAJORITY
OF OUR LOWER VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 75 MPH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND SOME OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FROPA.
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS USUALLY GET QUITE WINDY IN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME AND THE CORE OR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT EXTEND
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY SUNDAY...SO AGAIN THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THERE FOR SUNDAY. QPF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
LESS BUT ENOUGH SNOW AND WIND WILL COMBINE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PASSES THAT TRAVEL WILL BE SKETCHY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG STORY WITH HIGHS
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND BY TOMORROW
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT HAS A LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WITH A STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO PULLING COLD CANADIAN AIR DOWN
INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR A COLD MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE MID 20'S IN THE GRAND VALLEY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AROUND DELTA, AND TEENS INTO THE 20'S IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. IF YOU'RE IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD MILD
WEATHER FOR THE PAST WEEK OR TWO, YOU MIGHT NEED TO TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT MAY HAVE STARTED BUDDING. THIS COLD
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DRIFTS EAST UNTIL THE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CAMP BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER JETSTREAK DROPS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING FOR A LAST HURRAH WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, BUT DRIER LOWER LEVELS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO LITTLE IF ANY ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN NEAR NORMAL TO FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, WARMING TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS REACHING 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN SKIES BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AFTER 18Z. ONLY MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND SEE TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS, OTHERWISE ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS WILL PICK UP AFTER 18Z, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH 18Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ001-
002-006>008-011-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ004-010.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ021-
022.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ024-
027.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page