616
FXUS65 KGJT 151726
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1126 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA...THESE GUSTS THEN SETTLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND GUNNISON BASIN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
- A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS, AND LIGHT SNOW
IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
NIGHT LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- THERE IS A FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WE DID GET SOME GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH
63 AT HAYDEN A STRONGER OUTLIER. OVERALL HOWEVER CLOUD COVER
LIKELY LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF THESE GUSTS. THE COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN BORDER AND LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS WITH FROPA AND THEN LEAD TO POST
FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND THE GUNNISON BASIN
TOMORROW. SNOW TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH CORE OF
STRONG DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OUR CWA. OROGRAPHICS...STRONG COLD
ADVECTION(INFLATED SLR) AND FRONTAL LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
IS NARROW AND WILL BE DECAYING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM BUT ANY SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW...BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREDICTED WITH SOME OF THE NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. WILL NUDGE
SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND WATCH TRENDS FOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL LOOKING QUITE CHILLY MONDAY MORNING AS VERY DRY
AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN WITH
A RELAXING GRADIENT ALOFT. GUIDANCE AS COLD AS 17 AT GRAND
JUNCTION HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH THE LATEST RUN. LOWS IN THE MID
20S ARE STILL THE HIGHLY PROBABLE (>50%) SO ANYONE WITH
CONCERNS OF TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS. MONDAY WE
BEGIN THE TRUE WARMUP WHICH DOESN'T STOP UNTIL WE HIT THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS LATER THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE KEYED IN ON A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING STRONG
CONFIDENCE IN THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD, WITH ANY BUDGING OR WEAKENING
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME DURING NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH, MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGING IS LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. EARLY ON IN THE LONG-TERM,
WE WILL STILL BE SITTING UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH, MEANING IT LIKELY WON'T BE OUR TURN TO EXPERIENCE NEAR-RECORD
OR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE
EARLIEST. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL OFFER THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD RECORDS. THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL, MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE STILL ON TRACK
TO SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MINIMIZE ISSUES REGARDING SNOWMELT RUNOFF FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT
IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVER THE COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY SHOULD
MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFT IN A WARMER DIRECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WINDS DECREASE OVERALL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
STRONG SO THE DIRECTIONS MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SITES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLED AND EXPERIENCE THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014-021-022.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page