263
FXUS65 KGJT 170524
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ROADWAYS MAY
BECOME SNOW COVERED AT TIMES.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE BROKEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A PUSH OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TONIGHT, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA.
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, THIS IS
COMING IN THE FORM OF DENSE STRATUS WHICH IS PRECEDING OUR LAST
CHANCE FOR NOTABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MUCH MORE THAN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ALONG
THE PARK RANGE AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE FLAT TOPS AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
RESOLVING A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS, WHICH MAY PROMPT SHORT PERIODS OF INCREASE
RAIN/SNOW RATES. REGARDLESS, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE PASS LEVEL. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEPARTS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY, GIVING US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES AND
HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNDER THIS PATTERN, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LIKELY MEANS
BROKEN RECORDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WE COULD BE PUSHING
RECORDS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER COOL-DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
CEILINGS REMAIN AT OR BELOW BREAKPOINTS FOR KASE AND KEGE, WITH
THE CEILINGS AT KRIL ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE. THESE NEAR
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINT CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AT KHDN,
KASE, AND KEGE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS SO LOW
THAT IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA HAVE WEAKENED AND BEGUN TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
AFTER 15Z, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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