219
FXUS65 KGJT 171116
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ROADWAYS MAY
BECOME SNOW COVERED AT TIMES.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE BROKEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A PUSH OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TONIGHT, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA.
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, THIS IS
COMING IN THE FORM OF DENSE STRATUS WHICH IS PRECEDING OUR LAST
CHANCE FOR NOTABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MUCH MORE THAN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ALONG
THE PARK RANGE AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE FLAT TOPS AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
RESOLVING A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS, WHICH MAY PROMPT SHORT PERIODS OF INCREASE
RAIN/SNOW RATES. REGARDLESS, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE PASS LEVEL. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEPARTS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY, GIVING US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES AND
HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNDER THIS PATTERN, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LIKELY MEANS
BROKEN RECORDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WE COULD BE PUSHING
RECORDS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER COOL-DOWN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE, KEGE, AND
KRIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING. LIKEWISE,
KHDN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW STRATUS LINGER FOR THE SAME
PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNTIL 15Z OR SO, WHEN THEY SWITCH TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. WINDS WILL DROP AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS AGAIN AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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