450
FXUS65 KGJT 311742
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCOMING PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, VALLEY
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY THROUGH
9PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE COLORADO DIVIDE RANGES ABOVE 9000 FEET
WITH BURSTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
COOLER AND WET WEATHER INCOMING:
A WEAK TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING A BURST OF MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST, TURNING FLOW OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
ALLOWS US TO TAP INTO SOME REMNANT AR MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PWATS OF 200-250% OF NORMAL WILL COMPLETELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING, BEGINNING FIRST AS
CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. VALLEYS CAN EXPECT ALL RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM, WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9,000 FEET WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE PEAK OF THIS STORM WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. THIS COULD
CREATE A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY
FOR RABBIT EARS PASS, VAIL PASS, AND ALONG HIGHWAY 550. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER SNOW TOTALS DUE TO THE VERY, VERY
WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE GENERAL LACK OF A SNOWPACK
IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES VERSUS QUICKLY MELTS.
BUT THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS 6-12 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW FOR
THE RANGES ALONG THE COLORADO DIVIDE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EASTERN UTAH RANGES, INCLUDING THE EASTERN UINTAS AND LA SALS,
WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS, GENERALLY 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
LOOKING AHEAD:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS TRANSIENT RIDGING
BUILDS IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO LAST. THERE IS HIGH
MODEL CONFIDENCE FOR A SECOND, LATE WEEK SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. BLENDED GUIDANCE DROPS TEMPERATURES TO
5-10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY APRIL CLIMO FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, ALTHOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. VALLEY RAIN AND VALLEY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE DOMINANT, THOUGH CEILINGS REMAIN
HIGH AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SHOWERS FILL IN. KASE, KEGE, AND KRIL WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS BY 21Z. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE ALL RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS, THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES, INCLUDING KASE AND
KTEX, COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY, UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z, WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR BY 06Z, WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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